776
FXUS62 KJAX 201437
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1037 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS
THROUGH WED. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH MIDWEEK
- STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE MARINE HAZARDS FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS
WEEK
UPDATE
ANTICIPATING A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY TODAY AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, DELAYED SURFACE HEATING
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR MAY REDUCED INITIAL COVERAGE AND
DESTABILIZATION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. ANTICIPATE INLAND SHOWER AND
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EDGES OF
THE MORNING CLOUD COVER. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF US 301 WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. EXPECT STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP AMID COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, WHICH MAY BEGIN
AS EARLY AS 2-3 PM.
ONCE THE SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT
UP QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z, MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FOCUS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES WILL BE AT INLAND AIRFIELDS 40-70% THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING (18-23Z). DOWNPOURS WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITY AT TIMES
AT KJAX/KVQQ/KGNV WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR OR LOWER
WITH +TSRA. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BY 16Z AND THEN EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
DIMINISHING SPEEDS AFTER 01Z THIS EVENING. AS WINDS TREND CALM,
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG AT
INLAND AIRFIELDS AFTER 08Z.
MARINE
SURFACE TROUGHING AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOCATED JUST WEST OF TAMPA
BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH COVERAGE THEN INCREASING FROM MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SPEEDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CREATING A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY CREATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A
LOWER-END MODERATE RISK IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AT ALL AREA
BEACHES. A SURGE OF STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
BREAKER HEIGHTS WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND A HIGH RISK IS
LIKELY AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PROGRESS FROM EAST TO
WEST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND THE OKEFENOKEE
SWAMP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
STRONGER SPEEDS THEN FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHTER
SPEEDS TODAY WILL YIELD MARGINALLY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, WITH GENERALLY POOR VALUES FORECAST ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT
FAIR VALUES FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. POOR TO FAIR DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, EXCEPT FOR GOOD
VALUES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 70 91 70 / 30 10 30 0
SSI 87 75 88 74 / 30 30 40 20
JAX 89 71 90 72 / 30 20 50 10
SGJ 87 75 88 74 / 30 10 40 20
GNV 89 71 91 71 / 60 30 70 10
OCF 90 71 91 72 / 30 20 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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