040
FXUS62 KJAX 071307
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
907 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES POSSIBLE ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT, AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, ROUGH SURF, ELEVATED TIDES AND BEACH
EROSION. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING.
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
9AM UPDATE
OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT
DUVAL COUNTY NORTHWARD. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WILL RE-
EVALUATE LATER TODAY WITH THE UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- FLOOD THREAT FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUES TODAY FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL AND CAMDEN COUNTY, GA
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
PERSIST AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. BREEZY NE WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FL AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. DRIER AIR
(PWATS 1-1.5 IN) CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF WAYCROSS WHERE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS. MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAINFALL CONTINUES IN
THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH ROUNDS OF CONVERGENT BANDS SHIFTING ONSHORE
BRINGING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, I-95 CORRIDOR AND
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL NE
FL AND CAMDEN COUNTY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVERGENT BANDS
SETTING UP OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2-6+ INCHES IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONVECTION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT WITH ROUNDS OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHIFTING ONSHORE TO NE FL INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO OVERCAST SKIES AND CONVECTION, DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THURSDAY IN NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA,
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
- ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHENING THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING SURF ZONE
RISK AND CONTINUE TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
A WAVY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EASTERN FL COAST WILL CONTINUE GUSTY
WINDS AT THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR WILL LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. INFLUENCE
FROM WHAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME HURRICANE ISAIAS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN IT AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS, RIP CURRENTS, AND CONTINUE A 'REVERSE FLOW' AND
ELEVATED TIDES IN ST JOHNS RIVER AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.
AFTER A SLIGHT "BREAK" IN THE SOGGY CONDITIONS THURSDAY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING DOWNPOURS OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY RESULT IN THE
CONSIDERATION OF FLOOD WATCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY.
UNKNOWNS REMAIN REGARD WHAT IS TO BE HURRICANE ISAIAS AS IT MAKES A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THIS
TIME, THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL FRIDAY WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ALREADY HAS A
"MARGINAL" (5%) RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE RANGES TO END THE WEEK WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FLOOD RISK AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ON SATURDAY AS
HURRICANE ISAIAS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST-MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THOUGH THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE'S TRAJECTORY AND SPEED ACROSS THE GULF, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE PSEUDO WARM FRONT EVOLVING WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HANG UP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
VEERED FLOW, WHICH MAY FAVOR SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
ALONG THE FRINGE BANDS OF ISAIAS. BEING IN THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED
QUADRANT, A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES MAY
BE ON THE TABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN RATES AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY YIELD A FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. IF FORECAST
OF TD9 SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER EAST, THESE AFOREMENTIONED THREATS
WILL BECOME A GREATER CONSIDERATION.
NEXT WEEK, A TRAILING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRIER, SUNNIER, WARMER AND STABLE
WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME CONTINUES, AND THEREFORE SO WILL PRIMARILY MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DUVAL
AND COASTAL TERMINALS. THIS WILL ALSO COME WITH A FLOW AROUND 10
KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING RA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
FOR SSI WHERE MORE ISOLATED VCSH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERHEAD NUDGES SOUTH. EXPECTING
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AND SHRA/RA TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACCORDINGLY TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR INLAND AREAS WHERE SOME LOW
STRATUS WHERE WINDS DROP OFF THE MOST TONIGHT AND LOW STRATUS
LINGERS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY. PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. ONSHORE
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE THURSDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING BACK TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING TROPICAL STORM
ISAIAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS: A NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL SURGE SOUTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FL COAST THROUGH TODAY LEADING TO STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS INLAND NE FL TODAY
SOGGY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GUSTS STRONGEST AT THE COAST, UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THICK OVERCAST WILL KEEP SMOKE DISPERSION LOW
TO POOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DUE TO ELEVATED COASTAL WINDS, HIGH OVERNIGHT DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME FOCUS SOUTH OF I-10
THURSDAY, EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA FRIDAY. INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACKS
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST.
FOG POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE COAST TODAY. DENSE
FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS WAVES OF CONVERGENT
BANDS SHIFT ONSHORE BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 2-6+ INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS AND
MAY WORSEN FLOOD ISSUES IN SOME ATLANTIC COASTAL AND ST. JOHNS RIVER
LOCATIONS. THE WATCH COVERS THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, SANTA FE AND ALAPAHA RIVERS HAVE
RISEN INTO FLOOD STAGE IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO FLOOD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER LEVELS PRIOR TO THIS RECENT BOUT OF HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA AND ST MARYS HAVE REACHED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE BUT ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO PEAK. WITH A BREAK
IN THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW FLOOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WITHIN THE ST JOHNS
RIVER SYSTEM WAS EXTEND THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
REVERSE FLOW WITHIN THE RIVER IS LIKELY TO RAISE TIDAL LEVELS TO
1.75 TO 2.25 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF FRESHWATER
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT RUNOFF WILL
EXACERBATE TIDAL FLOODING WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE (7-10 AM)
WITHIN THE MOUTH OF ST JOHNS RIVER TO NEAR MODERATE LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 63 81 66 / 10 0 0 10
SSI 80 71 82 73 / 40 10 20 30
JAX 81 71 82 70 / 70 30 30 50
SGJ 81 73 81 73 / 90 50 70 60
GNV 79 71 80 69 / 70 40 50 50
OCF 78 71 80 70 / 90 40 70 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ024-038-124-125-
132-137-138-225-233-325-333-425-433-533-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ124-138-
233-333.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ125-132-
137-225-325-633.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ165-166.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ454-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page