902
FXUS62 KJAX 071808
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
208 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FLOODING RAINFALL RISK COASTAL AREAS & ST. JOHNS BASIN TODAY
- TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING ST. JOHNS RIVER DOWNTOWN JAX TO WELAKA INUNDATION
NEAR 2 FT AGL. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR COAST & ICW.
EXTENDED DURATION TIDAL FLOOD EXPECTED FOR ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN
- HAZARDOUS MARINE & SURF ZONE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT, AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, ROUGH SURF, ELEVATED TIDES
AND BEACH EROSION
- HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNS FRIDAY & SATURDAY WITH SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- FLOOD THREAT FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUES TODAY FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL AND CAMDEN COUNTY, GA
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR UPSTREAM ST. JOHNS RIVER
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION,
AND HAS BEEN GENERALLY NUDGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS TRYING TO MAKE MORE OF A PUSH FROM
OUR NORTH. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORE OF A PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND TO A SMALL EXTENT OVER NORTHEAST FL, WHICH
CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH BREAKS IN THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT, SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA
TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE HIGHEST
POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT, WITH GENERALLY FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
GAINESVILLE AND AREAS SOUTH BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT ZONE. SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY, WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR DUVAL COUNTY WHERE SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 4-8+ INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ASIDE FROM RAINFALL AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS, THE OTHER PRIMARY
IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL/MARINE/ST. JOHNS RIVER FLOODING, WITH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AND ST.
JOHNS RIVER EAST OF DOWNTOWN JAX TO MAYPORT, WHERE ABOUT 1-1.5 FEET
OF WATER ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS EXPECTED AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. SOUTH OF THE JAX AREA, OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING BASED ON TRENDS AND OTHER GROUND TRUTH, AS WATER LEVELS NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS FORECAST, AND HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED IN A FEW AREAS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. RIP CURRENT RISK ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
DRIER AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE FL/GA BORDER TONIGHT BEFORE
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD (MORE ON THAT
BELOW), WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPRESS COASTAL SHOWERS JUST A BIT
OVERNIGHT. CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SIMILAR AREAS AS
DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT OVERALL AROUND 10-20% LESS.
WITH BREAKS IN THE SUN TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, THESE
AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOW 80S OVER INLAND GA AND THE UPPER
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA, AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THURSDAY IN NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA,
EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY
- ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHENING THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING SURF ZONE
RISK AND CONTINUE TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AN UNEVEN STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EASTERN FL COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
INFLUENCE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHILE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE STORM AND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS, RIP CURRENTS, AND CONTINUE A
'REVERSE FLOW' WITH ELEVATED TIDES IN ST JOHNS RIVER AND
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.
AFTER A SLIGHT "BREAK" IN THE SOGGY CONDITIONS THURSDAY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING DOWNPOURS OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY RESULT IN THE
CONSIDERATION OF FLOOD WATCHES FOR COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE ISAIAS PATH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FRIDAY WHERE THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ALREADY HAS A "MARGINAL" (5%) RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE RANGES TO END THE WEEK WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: FRI-MON
- FLOOD RISK AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ON SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST-MOVING TROPICAL STORM
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS THIS
WEEKEND AS THE PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT OF THE STORM TRAJECTORY OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE PSEUDO WARM FRONT EVOLVING WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM
AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HANG UP ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS DO INDICATE
LOW LEVEL VEERED FLOW, WHICH MAY FAVOR SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED ALONG THE FRINGE BANDS OF ISAIAS. BEING IN THE DYNAMICALLY
FAVORED QUADRANT, A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL
TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN RATES AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY YIELD A FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
NEXT WEEK, A TRAILING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRY WEATHER, CLEARING SKIES, AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO MAKE A PUSH FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS CAUSING SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES NORTH OF GNV AND SGJ, THOUGH EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL OVERALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN, QUITE
LITERALLY, UP AND DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH STRONGER WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN/NEARBY SHOWERS WHICH WILL REMAIN THE
CASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST IS TRICKY THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FOR DUVAL TERMINALS AS DRY AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO
NORTHEAST FL THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THANKS TO
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE, THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT ALL AIRFIELDS EXCEPT
FOR SSI. INLAND AREAS, WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE THE
MOST OVERNIGHT, WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS AT IFR LEVELS ON AT LEAST A
TEMPO BASIS. THURSDAY, SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY FOUND
ACROSS NORTHEAST FL, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY AT SGJ.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY. PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY AND THURSDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. ONSHORE
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DECREASE THURSDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING BACK TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING TROPICAL STORM
ISAIAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS: A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE PERSISTING ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FL COAST THROUGH TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS INLAND NE FL TODAY
SOGGY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GUSTS STRONGEST AT THE COAST, UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THICK OVERCAST WILL KEEP SMOKE DISPERSION LOW
TO POOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DUE TO ELEVATED COASTAL WINDS, HIGH OVERNIGHT DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME FOCUS SOUTH OF I-10
THURSDAY, EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA FRIDAY. INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACKS
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST.
FOG POTENTIAL: HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE COAST TODAY. DENSE
FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR COASTAL AREAS ACCORDINGLY, AS
COVERAGE GENERALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL SO FAR. WAVES OF
CONVERGENT BANDS COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM RAINFALL CONTINUING AT TIMES.
THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 2-6+ INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, SANTA FE AND ALAPAHA RIVERS HAVE
RISEN INTO FLOOD STAGE IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE INTO FLOOD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW WATER LEVELS PRIOR TO THIS RECENT BOUT OF HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA AND ST MARYS HAVE REACHED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE BUT ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO PEAK. WITH A BREAK
IN THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW FLOOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE. ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE, AS
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS "MODERATE" FLOOD
POTENTIAL AT PEAK HIGH TIDES (TIDAL LEVELS ABOUT 1.75 TO 2.25
FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THESE
AREAS) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE FRESHWATER
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT RUNOFF WILL
EXACERBATE TIDAL FLOODING WITH HIGH TIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 81 63 83 65 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 81 72 82 73 / 40 10 10 30
JAX 80 70 82 70 / 70 40 30 40
SGJ 80 73 81 73 / 90 60 60 50
GNV 79 69 81 69 / 70 40 60 40
OCF 78 70 80 70 / 90 60 70 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ024-038-124-125-
132-137-138-225-233-325-333-425-433-533-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ124-138-
233-333.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ125-225.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ132-137-
325-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR FLZ132-137-325-633.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ165-166.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ454-474.
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