330
FXUS62 KJAX 080622
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK, ROUGH SURF, ELEVATED TIDES AND BEACH EROSION.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE ST
JOHNS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL FALL BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS THIS
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY.
- HURRICANE ISAIAS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF
AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN FRIDAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
FOR UPSTREAM ST. JOHNS RIVER
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL DECREASING IN COVERAGE
NORTHWARD
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION, AND HAS BEEN GENERALLY NUDGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS TRYING TO
MAKE MORE OF A PUSH FROM OUR NORTH. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE
MORE OF A PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND TO A
SMALL EXTENT OVER NORTHEAST FL, WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH BREAKS IN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE HIGHEST POPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT, WITH GENERALLY FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
GAINESVILLE AND AREAS SOUTH BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT ZONE.
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY,
WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR DUVAL COUNTY WHERE SOME AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ASIDE FROM RAINFALL AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS, THE OTHER PRIMARY
IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL/MARINE/ST. JOHNS RIVER FLOODING,
WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST
AND ST. JOHNS RIVER EAST OF DOWNTOWN JAX TO MAYPORT, WHERE ABOUT
1-1.5 FEET OF WATER ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. SOUTH OF THE JAX AREA, OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING BASED ON TRENDS AND OTHER GROUND TRUTH,
AS WATER LEVELS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY
GROUND IS FORECAST, AND HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN A FEW AREAS.
THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. RIP CURRENT RISK ALSO CONTINUES TO BE HIGH
AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
DRIER AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE FL/GA BORDER TONIGHT
BEFORE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD (MORE
ON THAT BELOW), WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPRESS COASTAL SHOWERS JUST A
BIT OVERNIGHT. CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SIMILAR AREAS
AS DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT OVERALL AROUND 10-20% LESS.
WITH BREAKS IN THE SUN TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA,
THESE AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOW 80S OVER INLAND GA AND THE UPPER
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA, AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOOD RISK RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
AREAS.
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS RENEW THE SURF ZONE RISK AND CONTINUE
TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY BE LIFTED
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST FL THROUGH FRIDAY AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HURRICANE ISAIAS AND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE INTENSIFY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AS WELL, RENEWING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS, IT APPEARS THAT THE ONLY ZONES THAT MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10; HOWEVER, THIS
MAY CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO ANY CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HIGHEST CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND BEACH COMMUNITIES ON FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FLEX AS IT PUSHES
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG INFLUX
SURFACE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND POTENTIAL TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY. PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE BOUNDARY LAYER STORM-
RELATIVE HELICITY MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTH INTO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY.
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL DRIFT WELL TO NORTH INTO THE
APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN NATURE. A
STEADY STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
AIRMASS UNSTABLE, SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND THE REMNANT
TROPICAL LOW. THOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH A WEAKER AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL, STRONG ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL PROLONG
THE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/ST JOHNS RIVER,
DEADLY RIP CURRENT/SURF, AND MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERHAPS APPROACH 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF NE FL BY SUNDAY
AS SUNSHINE MAKES A RETURN TO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMER THAN NORMAL
- NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE LATE NEXT; ELEVATED TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND IT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE,
LEADING TO RAIN- FREE, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW AND
DECREASING TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, A DRY
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATE TIDAL LEVELS AGAIN TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CLNGS
ALONG THE COAST AND CRG AND JAX WITH IFR CLNGS DEVELOPING AT GNV
AND VQQ THROUGH 09Z WITH NEAR CALM WINDS INLAND AND 5-8 KNOTS
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS MAY MOVE ONSHORE AT TIMES AFTER 09Z AT
SGJ WITH VCSH OTHERWISE NOTED THERE.
THURSDAY, VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY RETURN TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 15Z/16Z WHILE IFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY 15Z AT
GNV, THEN TO VFR BY AFTER 17Z. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE 10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT SHOWERS CHANCES AT SSI WHILE COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT SGJ. HAVE KEPT PROB30 GROUPS AT CRG AND VQQ WHERE THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF HEAVIER COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE NEAREST IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH COASTAL SHOWERS MORE PRESIDENT AT SGJ TODAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER 00Z WITH SHOWERS AGAIN
PERSISTENT AT SGJ WHERE MVFR CLNGS WILL RETURN ALONG WITH GNV.
MARINE
DECREASING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING DUE TO A BRIEFLY WEAKENING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WATERS STARTING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN DUE TO ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING HURRICANE ISAIAS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS: A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE PERSISTING ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FL COAST THROUGH TODAY WILL RESULT IN
STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS, FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO SOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. DIRECT LOCAL IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED BUT FRINGE OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
OUT AND WARM UP NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS. NO IMMEDIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OR WEATHER WATCHOUTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER POTENTIAL PERIOD OF FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HYDROLOGY
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST
JOHNS RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IN
RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH RAINFALL OVER THE PORTIONS OF
THOSE BASINS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY PROLONG OR LEAD TO OTHER LOCAL RIVER
RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO
LOWER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS RIVER. TIDES WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING BUT WILL LOWER AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH
THE ASTRONOMICAL PEAK TIDES WITH THE NEW MOON, YIELDING MINOR
TO LOW-END MODERATE FLOODING ALONG AT THE BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE.
DUE TO WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
BASIN OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER, TIDAL LEVELS WILL LIKELY REACH
MODERATE LEVELS AGAIN WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE, UP TO 2.25
FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESHWATER RUNOFF AND
ONGOING 'REVERSE FLOW' WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
ST JOHNS RIVER. WILL REASSESS THE NEED TO EXTEND THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING LATER THIS MORNING AFTER HIGH TIDE. ANTICIPATE
WATER LEVELS AT HIGH TIDE TO BE AT LEAST AT MINOR FLOOD LEVEL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST JOHNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 68 77 69 / 0 10 50 80
SSI 83 73 82 74 / 20 30 60 90
JAX 82 71 81 72 / 50 40 70 90
SGJ 81 73 82 74 / 80 60 90 90
GNV 80 69 81 71 / 70 60 90 60
OCF 79 70 83 73 / 90 70 80 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLZ124-138-233-333.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ125-225.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ132-
137-325-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR FLZ132-137-325-633.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GAZ154-166.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ452-454-472-474.
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