865
FXUS62 KJAX 081346
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
946 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK, ROUGH SURF, ELEVATED TIDES AND BEACH EROSION. MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER
THROUGH
- HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN GULF COAST.
REINVIGORATED ONSHORE WINDS AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY AND. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WERE TO
INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES BASED ON RADAR AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE. MAY NEED TO ALSO TRIM BACK THE T-STORM CHANCES SINCE THE
REST OF TODAY WILL LARGELY BE ISENTROPIC LIFT PROCESSES WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY GIVEN MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 800-1000 J/KG. NO CHANGES
TO THE TEMPS WITH SLIGHT AMENDMENTS TO THE WINDS AND SKY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR UPSTREAM ST. JOHNS RIVER
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL DECREASING IN COVERAGE
NORTHWARD
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION,
AND HAS BEEN GENERALLY NUDGING FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS TRYING TO MAKE MORE OF A PUSH FROM
OUR NORTH. MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE MORE OF A PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND TO A SMALL EXTENT OVER NORTHEAST FL, WHICH
CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH BREAKS IN THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONT, SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA
TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE HIGHEST
POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT, WITH GENERALLY FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
GAINESVILLE AND AREAS SOUTH BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT ZONE. SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY, WHICH IS GOOD
NEWS FOR DUVAL COUNTY WHERE SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 4-8+ INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ASIDE FROM RAINFALL AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS, THE OTHER PRIMARY
IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL/MARINE/ST. JOHNS RIVER FLOODING, WITH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST AND ST.
JOHNS RIVER EAST OF DOWNTOWN JAX TO MAYPORT, WHERE ABOUT 1-1.5 FEET
OF WATER ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS EXPECTED AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. SOUTH OF THE JAX AREA, OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING BASED ON TRENDS AND OTHER GROUND TRUTH, AS WATER LEVELS NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS FORECAST, AND HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED IN A FEW AREAS. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. RIP CURRENT RISK ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
DRIER AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT THE FL/GA BORDER TONIGHT BEFORE
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD (MORE ON THAT
BELOW), WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPRESS COASTAL SHOWERS JUST A BIT
OVERNIGHT. CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SIMILAR AREAS AS
DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT OVERALL AROUND 10-20% LESS.
WITH BREAKS IN THE SUN TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, THESE
AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOW 80S OVER INLAND GA AND THE UPPER
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA, AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALONG WITH FLOODING CHANCES
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS RENEW THE SURF ZONE RISK AND CONTINUE TIDAL
FLOODING WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AS HURRICANE NAMED ISAIAS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY. AS
IT MOVES NORTH, IT WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FL AS A WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT, COMBINED WITH OUTER BANDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A STORMY DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NE FL. WHILE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE, IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LOCALLY DUE TO THE WARM FRONT.
DUE TO THE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS, THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM DUE TO THE WARM FRONT.
ON SATURDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH, WARM AND MORE MOIST
AIR WILL ADVECT NORTH INTO REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT POTENTIAL
WILL STILL EXIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE,
ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUNDAY, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
SOME AREAS OF LOW CIGS DOWN TO IFR INLAND AT GNV AND VQQ WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS PRETTY INTERMITTENT THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. OTHERWISE, A RISK OF MVFR CIGS FOR ALL THE TAFS THROUGH 16Z-
17Z. AND THEN MOSTLY VFR CIGS PREVAIL. WHILE THERE MAY BE PREVAILING
VFR CIGS LATER TODAY, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT
SHOWERS BUT VIS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE EITHER MVFR OR VFR. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR NORTHEAST FL TAFS FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. LATER TONIGHT, PROBABLY LOOKING AT INCREASING
CHANCES OF LOW CIGS AGAIN WITH HIGHEST CHANCE OF MVFR ESPECIALLY
GNV, SGJ, VQQ, AND CRG, AND CAN'T RULE OUT IFR AFTER 05Z/06Z. AREAS
OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT. FOR SFC WINDS, MAINLY NORTHEAST INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KT
TODAY AND GRADUALLY TURNING MORE EAST AFTER 00Z WHILE DECREASING TO
5-10 KT.
MARINE
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE MOST OF MOST OF THE WATERS BY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
A FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS STARTING TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN DUE TO ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS: A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE PERSISTING ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FL COAST THROUGH TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL TODAY
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN TODAY FOR MOST AREAS, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO SOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. DIRECT LOCAL
IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT FRINGE OUTER RAIN
BANDS MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS. NO IMMEDIATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OR WEATHER WATCH OUTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HYDROLOGY
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST JOHNS
RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IN RESPONSE TO
WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH RAINFALL OVER THE PORTIONS OF THOSE BASINS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAY PROLONG OR LEAD TO OTHER LOCAL RIVER RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO LOWER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS RIVER. TIDES WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LOWER AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
ASTRONOMICAL PEAK TIDES WITH THE NEW MOON, YIELDING MINOR TO LOW-END
MODERATE FLOODING ALONG AT THE BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE.
DUE TO WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN
OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER, TIDAL LEVELS WILL LIKELY REACH MODERATE
LEVELS AGAIN WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE, UP TO 2.25 FEET ABOVE
NORMALLY DRY GROUND. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESHWATER RUNOFF AND ONGOING 'REVERSE
FLOW' WITH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER. WILL
REASSESS THE NEED TO EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING LATER THIS
MORNING AFTER HIGH TIDE. ANTICIPATE WATER LEVELS AT HIGH TIDE TO BE
AT LEAST AT MINOR FLOOD LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 68 77 69 / 0 10 50 80
SSI 83 73 82 74 / 30 30 60 90
JAX 82 71 81 72 / 40 40 70 90
SGJ 81 73 82 74 / 70 60 90 90
GNV 80 69 81 71 / 80 60 90 60
OCF 79 70 83 73 / 80 70 80 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLZ124-138-233-333.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ125-225.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ132-
137-325-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR FLZ132-137-325-633.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GAZ154-166.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ452-454-472-474.
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