322
FXUS62 KJAX 091211
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
811 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS, ROUGH SURF, ELEVATED TIDES AND BEACH EROSION. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER
- HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN GULF
COAST. REINVIGORATED ONSHORE WINDS AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADOES
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS FOR AREA COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS LATE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT
FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NE FL
AND SE GA NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND INCREASING SW FLOW IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS DOWNSTREAM OF HURRICANE ISAIAS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS INCREASING MOUSIER, LIFT AND INSTABILITY BACK
OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE
GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL FILL IN GRADUALLY THROUGH SUNRISE
ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND THEN SHIFT INTO INLAND NE FL TO I-10 AND
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FL INTO NE FL BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG T'STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
INLAND NE FL.
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T'STORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO SE GA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS HURRICANE
ISAIAS APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, BUT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SE GA BY THIS EVENING WITH A
TRAILING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY NEAR AND WEST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST TO US-221/441 IN SE GA. THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
T'STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE TRAILING BAND OF SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WILL BE IN A
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADOS AND GUSTY WINDS 40-
60 MPH AS WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR INCREASE AFTER ISAIAS MOVES INLAND
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION AND
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP WITH WINDS 15-25 MPH AT THE COAST WITH GUST TO 30-35 MPH
DECREASING TO 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR ALL OF NE FL THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED 4-8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF SE GA WHERE WAVES OF
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISAIAS SHIFTS NE ACROSS
GEORGIA.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER COUNTIES WHILE
REACHING THE LOW 80S OVER I-10 AND THE SE GA COAST AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 70 OVER SE GA AND THE LOW TO MID 70S
OVER NE FL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALONG WITH FLOODING CHANCES
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS RENEW THE SURF ZONE RISK AND CONTINUE TIDAL
FLOODING WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILING AFTER THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PRESSES OVER THE
REGION FROM OUT OF THE WEST, LEADING TO A DROP OFF IN CONVECTION BY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOODS OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA, ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN FROM OUT OF THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ON SATURDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSES SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BRINGING DRY WEATHER, CLEARING SKIES, AND MILD WINDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL RISE TO BE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT, AIRPORT TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE ARE SEEING SOME VFR AT CRG, JAX, AND SGJ
AT 12Z, CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE AS SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
WORK NORTHWARD. PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. TEMPO GROUPS WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE IFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND CAN'T RULE OUT
LIFR.
WINDS PICK UP DURING TODAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ONSHORE FLOW AND
HURRICANE ISAIAS OVER THE GULF STRENGTHENS WITH SUSTAINED 12-18 KT
NEAR THE COAST AND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS WHILE DECREASING TO 15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS INLAND AT GNV AND VQQ. WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLOWLY AFTER 00Z AT MOST SITES EXCEPT SSI TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS AND MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING.
MARINE
A FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS STARTING TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
AND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS: STRENGTHENING EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS TODAY BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MAKES
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST JOHNS
RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAY BRING FURTHER INCREASES IN WATER LEVELS AND LEAD TO
OTHER LOCAL RIVER RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO LOWER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS RIVER WHILE DECREASING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY, SO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN ONLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER. ANTICIPATE WATER LEVELS
AT HIGH TIDE TO BE AT LEAST AT MINOR FLOOD LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITHIN THE ST JOHNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 70 82 71 / 90 100 100 60
SSI 82 74 85 75 / 100 90 70 50
JAX 83 73 88 73 / 90 80 70 40
SGJ 84 76 88 75 / 90 60 70 40
GNV 85 73 88 73 / 80 60 70 40
OCF 87 75 89 75 / 70 50 80 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-
035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ125-132-
137-225-325-633.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-
264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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