104
FXUS62 KJAX 092344
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
744 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- TORNADO WATCH FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR THROUGH 9PM
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS, ROUGH SURF,
ELEVATED TIDES AND BEACH EROSION. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR
THE ST JOHNS RIVER
- HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN GULF COAST.
REINVIGORATED ONSHORE WINDS AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
AND FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR AREA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND LINGERS ON SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS LATE TODAY WITH A THREAT
FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES FOR INLAND AREAS. TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 9
PM FOR HAMILTON, SUWANNEE, AND ECHOLS COUNTIES.
INCREASED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE NORTHERLY TRACK
OF ISAIS IN THE GULF IS FUNNELING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AT 230 PM TODAY
BUT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO PUSH
UP INTO NORTHEAST FL AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER ON FOR THE INLAND AREAS
WHERE THERE IS MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PARAMETERS AND AS RAINBANDS LIFT
UP INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN FL. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SEVERE
STORMS, INCLUDING TORNADOES, IS PLACED IN FOR SUWANNEE, HAMILTON,
AND ECHOLS WHERE THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EITHER A NEW WATCH IS ISSUED LATER TODAY
AND/OR THE CURRENT WATCH IS EXPANDED, PENDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
FOR LATER TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS CLOSER
TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
MEANWHILE, STRONGER GRADIENT EASTERLY WINDS ARE REACHING 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF ABOUT 32-38 MPH AT 230 PM. THESE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE GRADUALLY, EXCEPT BREEZY AT THE
COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAINFALL IS THERE GIVEN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUNDS IN THE REGION SO THE
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGEST POSSIBLE SCATTERED FLOODING ISSUES LATER TONIGHT
AND MAINLY INLAND ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALONG WITH FLOODING CHANCES
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS TRAILING BANDS SWEEP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES ITS INLAND PUSH
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WITH THOSE LOCATIONS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. BREEZY WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN 30MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
PASSING BANDS FROM ISAIAS, WITH STRONGER GUSTS LIKELY DURING ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PASSING BANDS. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A SLIGHT
TO MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
PER THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SE GA.
BY SUNDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE JAX METRO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS SE GA AND
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR NE FL, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS OF NE FL. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN FROM OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL BE QUIET. DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEK WILL RISE TO BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH MAX TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TSRA CHANCES AT GNV/SGJ UNTIL 02Z, THEN AT JAX/CRG/VQQ FROM 01-04Z,
THEN SSI FROM 02-05Z. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15G25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z BEFORE BECOMING E-SE AND DECREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR
CONDS WITH TSRA ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE TERMINALS. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 09-15Z TIME FRAME AND HAVE CONTINUED
MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH AT MOST TERMINALS. DIURNAL HEATING IN S-SE FLOW
INCREASING TO 10-15G20-25 KNOTS BY 15-16Z WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH TSRA CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 FOR GUSTY MVFR TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 30
KNOT POTENTIAL AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
A FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE
REGION AND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO ELEVATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT. ISAIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH ON SATURDAY OVER ALABAMA. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PARTIALLY ON SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
WATERS PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS TODAY
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDS, AND LINGERING
ROUGH SURF AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS TRAILING BANDS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS. QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK, WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST JOHNS
RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAY BRING FURTHER INCREASES IN WATER LEVELS AND LEAD TO
OTHER LOCAL RIVER RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO LOWER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS RIVER WHILE DECREASING BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY, SO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN ONLY ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER. ANTICIPATE WATER LEVELS
AT HIGH TIDE TO BE AT LEAST AT MINOR FLOOD LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITHIN THE ST JOHNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 85 70 81 / 100 100 60 30
SSI 75 85 75 85 / 90 70 70 30
JAX 74 90 74 85 / 90 70 50 40
SGJ 76 90 75 86 / 70 80 50 60
GNV 74 89 73 85 / 70 70 60 70
OCF 74 90 74 84 / 50 70 50 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-
035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-132-
137-225-325-633.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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