226
FXUS62 KJAX 100816
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
416 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS,
ROUGH SURF, ELEVATED TIDES AND BEACH EROSION. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER
- WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO THE TN
VALLEY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. REINVIGORATED ONSHORE WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADOES POSSIBLE TODAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR AREA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND LINGERS ON SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS LATE TODAY WITH A THREAT
FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INLAND AREAS.
A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW AFTER HEAVIER SHOWERS AND T'STORMS
MOVED THROUGH THE JACKSONVILLE VICINITY LATE OVERNIGHT WHICH
BROUGHT LOCALLY UP TO 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE NE
FL COAST, BUT HAS NOW SHIFTED NNE OFF THE SE GA COAST AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG I-10 NORTHWARD INTO SE GA THROUGH SUNRISE. EASTERLY
WINDS 5-10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL TREND
SOUTHEASTERLY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MULTI LAYERED CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE ISAIAS MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. MUGGY AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE MID 70S.
AS THE WEAKENING REMNANTS ISAIAS SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AL,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NNE OF THE REGION WITH A PINCHED LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME AS MORE PEAKS
OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA,
BRINGING WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST. BANDS
OF SHOWERS TRAILING TC ISAIAS TO THE NW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SSW TO
NNE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
MID 70S DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND
STRONGER HEATING WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CAPE VALUES OVER 1,500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
850 MB WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS
WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INLAND SE GA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH. THE STORM
PREDICATION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS MENTIONED WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
THE REST OF NE FL TO THE COAST. THE BEST TIMING WILL BE MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND AND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
IN ADDITION, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL WHERE
BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HREF SHOWS PROBABILITY
MATCH MEAN PERCENTAGES OF UP TO 50 PERCENT OF ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER
3 HOURS OVER THESE AREAS WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS IN THE 6 HOUR MAX
VALUES PEAKING 3-4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR THE AREAS IN THE FLOOD
WATCH.
ANOTHER LULL IN RAIN AND T'STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
SUNSET WITH ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 15-20 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER
FAR INLAND SE GA, BUT REMAIN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NE FL AND
EASTERN AREAS OF SE GA UNDER THINNING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS
TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
- CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY END OF SUNDAY
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ON MONDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISPERSE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE DRY STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING
OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER, CLEARING SKIES, AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO A BRIEF
WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPS RISING FROM OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR COASTAL AREAS AND ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK
- DIURNAL SEA BREEZE WINDS BY FRIDAY
PREDOMINANTLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS CROSSES INTO TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
UP TO THE NORTH AND SHIFTS THE PREVAILING FLOW ABOUT TO BECOME A
MORE ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, INCREASING THE REACH OF
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE WINDS REACHING INLAND PAST THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S, AND THEN DROPPING TO
BE NEARER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TSRA CHANCES AT GNV/SGJ UNTIL 02Z, THEN AT JAX/CRG/VQQ FROM 01-04Z,
THEN SSI FROM 02-05Z. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15G25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z BEFORE BECOMING E-SE AND DECREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH TEMPO IFR
CONDS WITH TSRA ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE TERMINALS. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 09-15Z TIME FRAME AND HAVE CONTINUED
MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH AT MOST TERMINALS. DIURNAL HEATING IN S-SE FLOW
INCREASING TO 10-15G20-25 KNOTS BY 15-16Z WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH TSRA CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 FOR GUSTY MVFR TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 30
KNOT POTENTIAL AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND EXITS EAST OF THE WATERS. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SUPPORT
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDS,
AND LINGERING ROUGH SURF AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS TRAILING BANDS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS. QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK, WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HYDROLOGY
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST JOHNS
RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAY BRING FURTHER INCREASES IN WATER LEVELS AND LEAD TO
OTHER LOCAL RIVER RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO LOWER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS RIVER, SO CONTINUING THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ONLY ALONG THE
ST JOHNS RIVER. ANTICIPATE WATER LEVELS AT HIGH TIDE TO BE AT LEAST
AT MINOR FLOOD LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST JOHNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 69 80 64 / 90 80 10 0
SSI 85 74 85 66 / 70 50 20 0
JAX 88 73 85 64 / 80 40 30 0
SGJ 89 75 85 65 / 80 30 40 0
GNV 87 73 84 63 / 80 70 50 0
OCF 88 75 84 63 / 70 60 60 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-030-035-120-
220-322-422-522.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-132-
137-225-325-633.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-
162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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