906
FXUS62 KJAX 101510
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1110 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- TORNADO & FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES TODAY & THIS EVENING. TORNADO
RISK INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. GREATEST CONCERN AREAS:
SOUTHEAST GA & SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS, ROUGH
SURF, ELEVATED TIDES & BEACH EROSION, MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING ST. JOHNS BASIN CONTINUES
UPDATE
RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER WERE CRESTING AT LOW-END
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR AREA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND LINGERS ON SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS LATE TODAY WITH A THREAT
FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INLAND AREAS.
LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW AFTER HEAVIER SHOWERS AND T'STORMS
MOVED THROUGH THE JACKSONVILLE VICINITY LATE OVERNIGHT WHICH BROUGHT
LOCALLY UP TO 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE NE FL COAST,
BUT HAS NOW SHIFTED NNE OFF THE SE GA COAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG I-10 NORTHWARD INTO SE GA THROUGH SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS 5-10
MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL TREND SOUTHEASTERLY
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MULTI LAYERED CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS MOVES
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. MUGGY
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINED INT HE MID 70S.
AS THE WEAKENING REMNANTS ISAIAS SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AL,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NNE OF THE REGION WITH A PINCHED LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME AS MORE PEAKS
OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA,
BRINGING WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA AND 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST. BANDS
OF SHOWERS TRAILING TC ISAIAS TO THE NW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SSW TO
NNE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
MID 70S DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND
STRONGER HEATING WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
CAPE VALUES OVER 1,500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
850 MB WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS AND VEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS
WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INLAND SE GA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH. THE STORM
PREDICATION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS MENTIONED WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
THE REST OF NE FL TO THE COAST. THE BEST TIMING WILL BE MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND AND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
IN ADDITION, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL WHERE
BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HREF SHOWS PROBABILITY
MATCH MEAN PERCENTAGES OF UP TO 50 PERCENT OF ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER
3 HOURS OVER THESE AREAS WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS IN THE 6 HOUR MAX
VALUES PEAKING 3-4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR THE AREAS IN THE FLOOD
WATCH.
ANOTHER LULL IN RAIN AND T'STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
SUNSET WITH ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 15-20 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER
FAR INLAND SE GA, BUT REMAIN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NE FL AND
EASTERN AREAS OF SE GA UNDER THINNING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS
TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY END OF SUNDAY
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ON MONDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND DISPERSE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE DRY STABLE AIR MASS SETTLING
OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER, CLEARING SKIES, AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO A BRIEF
WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPS RISING FROM OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR COASTAL AREAS AND ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK
- DIURNAL SEA BREEZE WINDS BY FRIDAY
PREDOMINANTLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS CROSSES INTO TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
UP TO THE NORTH AND SHIFTS THE PREVAILING FLOW ABOUT TO BECOME A
MORE ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, INCREASING THE REACH OF
DIURNAL SEA BREEZE WINDS REACHING INLAND PAST THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S, AND THEN DROPPING TO
BE NEARER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
SSE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 10 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BY 18Z. MVFR CIGS FROM INCOMING
STRATIFORM RAIN AT GNV THIS MORNING LIFT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. RAINBANDS FROM POST-TROPICAL ISAIAS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF GNV
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
ALL TAF SITES BY 15-18Z. DIURNAL HEATING WILL TRIGGER TSRA CHANCES
IN THE 18-23Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE TEMPO/PROB30S FOR GUSTY MVFR TSRA
ACTIVITY WITH 30 KNOT POTENTIAL AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS MOVE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND EXITS EAST OF THE WATERS. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SUPPORT
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDS,
AND LINGERING ROUGH SURF AT TIMES ON SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING
- HIGH LOW DISPERSIONS TONIGHT
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS TRAILING BANDS FROM POST-TROPICAL ISAIAS SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. BREEZY WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND ELEVATED
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. QUIETER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK, WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST JOHNS
RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAY BRING FURTHER INCREASES IN WATER LEVELS AND LEAD TO
OTHER LOCAL RIVER RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO LOWER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 69 80 64 / 90 70 10 0
SSI 85 74 85 66 / 70 50 20 0
JAX 88 73 85 64 / 90 50 30 0
SGJ 89 75 85 65 / 80 50 40 0
GNV 87 73 84 63 / 80 70 50 0
OCF 88 75 84 63 / 80 60 60 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-030-035-
120-220-322-422-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ038.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-132-137-
225-325-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-
132-137-225-325-633.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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