921
FXUS62 KJAX 101851
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- TORNADO & FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES TODAY & THIS EVENING.
GREATEST CONCERN AREAS: SOUTHEAST GA & SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS, ROUGH
SURF, ELEVATED TIDES & BEACH EROSION, MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING ST. JOHNS BASIN CONTINUES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR
A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS, ROUGH
SURF, ELEVATED TIDES & BEACH EROSION, MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL
FLOODING ST. JOHNS BASIN CONTINUES
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM ISAIAS OVER
CENTRAL AL ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND INTO THE SC COAST LEAVING OUR AREA
IN THE WARM SECTOR. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRAILING POST-
TROPICAL ISAIAS TO THE NW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WSW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PWATS 2.1-2.3 IN) AND STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT ALLOWED FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG)
OF THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD. DECENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (35 KTS SFC-3KM)
AND VEERING, NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH
AREA-WIDE AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES MAINLY FOR INLAND SE GA AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS, DUVAL COUNTY
MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY IF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COINCIDE WITH
THE ST JOHNS RIVER HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ANOTHER LULL IN RAIN AND T'STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
SUNSET AS ISAIAS' ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SE GA AND NE FL TOWARDS SUNRISE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW SCOURING OUT THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER FAR INLAND SE GA, BUT REMAIN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS NE FL AND EASTERN AREAS OF SE GA UNDER THINNING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY END OF SUNDAY
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ON MONDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. BY MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A DRY AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO
START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 70S. BY
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK
- DIURNAL SEA BREEZE WINDS BY FRIDAY
PREDOMINANTLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PUSHES TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC UP TO
THE NORTH AND SHIFTS THE PREVAILING FLOW ABOUT TO BECOME A MORE
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, INCREASING THE REACH OF DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE WINDS REACHING INLAND PAST THE ST JOHNS RIVER. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S, AND THEN DROPPING TO BE NEARER
TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. MVFR CIGS OVER THE NE FL
TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM 18-24Z. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME. HAVE TEMPO/PROB30S FOR GUSTY MVFR
TSRA ACTIVITY WITH 30 KNOT POTENTIAL AT ALL TERMINALS. COVERAGE
DECREASES AFTER 00Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z. WINDS SHIFT TO WSW BY 12Z.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS MOVE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND EXITS EAST
OF THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SUPPORT
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. RIP CURRENT RISK BECOMES
MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING
- HIGH LOW DISPERSIONS TONIGHT
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA SUNDAY
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS TRAILING BANDS FROM POST-TROPICAL ISAIAS SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
BREEZY WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. QUIETER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION INTO MIDWEEK, WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL
OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS, DUVAL COUNTY MAY NEED A
FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY IF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COINCIDE WITH THE ST
JOHNS RIVER HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST JOHNS
RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAY BRING FURTHER INCREASES IN WATER LEVELS AND LEAD TO
OTHER LOCAL RIVER RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO LOWER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES
CRESTED AT LOW-END MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIVER IS ALLOWED TO DRAIN BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 80 64 84 / 70 10 0 0
SSI 74 84 64 85 / 50 40 0 0
JAX 73 85 64 86 / 50 40 0 0
SGJ 74 85 67 86 / 60 40 0 0
GNV 73 83 64 85 / 80 50 0 0
OCF 75 82 65 83 / 80 70 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-030-035-
120-220-322-422-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ038.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-132-137-
225-325-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-
132-137-225-325-633.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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