480
FXUS62 KJAX 110036
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
836 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TONIGHT BUT
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL
POSSIBLE.
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS, ROUGH
SURF, ELEVATED TIDES & BEACH EROSION
- MINOR TO LOW-END MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING ST. JOHNS BASIN
UPDATE
THE UPDATE FOR TONIGHT CONSISTED OF ADJUSTING POPS TO REFLECT
LATEST RADAR DATA AND TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH. STILL EXPECTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST A FEW T-STORMS
TONIGHT OVERALL, WITH CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOWING SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AT 830 PM. BUT AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES IN LATER
TONIGHT, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, PROBABLY NOT SEVERE STORMS, JUST BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL
TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAY
BE UPWARDS OF 1.25 INCHES CENTERED CLOSE TO GILCHRIST, ALACHUA,
AND WEST MARION COUNTIES. BUT GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.60 INCHES. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOR AREA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND LINGERS ON SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM ISAIAS OVER
CENTRAL AL ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND INTO THE SC COAST LEAVING OUR AREA
IN THE WARM SECTOR. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRAILING POST-
TROPICAL ISAIAS TO THE NW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WSW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PWATS 2.1-2.3 IN) AND STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT ALLOWED FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG)
OF THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD. DECENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (35 KTS SFC-3KM)
AND VEERING, NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH
AREA-WIDE AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES MAINLY FOR INLAND SE GA AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS, DUVAL COUNTY
MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY IF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COINCIDE WITH
THE ST JOHNS RIVER HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ANOTHER LULL IN RAIN AND T'STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AFTER
SUNSET AS ISAIAS' ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SE GA AND NE FL TOWARDS SUNRISE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW SCOURING OUT THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER FAR INLAND SE GA, BUT REMAIN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS NE FL AND EASTERN AREAS OF SE GA UNDER THINNING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY END OF SUNDAY
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ON MONDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. BY MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A DRY AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO
START THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 70S. BY
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK
- DIURNAL SEA BREEZE WINDS BY FRIDAY
PREDOMINANTLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PUSHES TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC UP TO
THE NORTH AND SHIFTS THE PREVAILING FLOW ABOUT TO BECOME A MORE
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, INCREASING THE REACH OF DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE WINDS REACHING INLAND PAST THE ST JOHNS RIVER. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S, AND THEN DROPPING TO BE NEARER
TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, LARGELY VFR CIGS THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY FOR COASTAL TAFS, WHERE
MVFR TO AT LEAST IFR VSBY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO DROPS IN CIGS LATE TONIGHT AFTER ABOUT 06Z WHERE CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL ISOLATED STORMS, PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF A
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT, EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO
THE TAFS FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 12Z. THIS SECONDARY LINE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO NOT AFFECT SGJ UNTIL ABOUT 12Z-
16Z BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. HAVE PROB30 FOR THE LATTER
CONVECTION BUT MAY NEED TO GO TO TEMPO GROUP AS THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. FOR SURFACE WINDS, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 5- 12 KT, VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY 10Z, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING
TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 13Z AT ABOUT 8-12 KT.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WATERS FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF
ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND EXITS EAST OF THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SUPPORT
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. RIP CURRENT RISK BECOMES
MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH LOW DISPERSIONS TONIGHT
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA SUNDAY
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS TRAILING BANDS FROM POST-TROPICAL ISAIAS SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. DRIER WEATHER BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
BREEZY WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. QUIETER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION INTO MIDWEEK, WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: DENSE FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN TEMPORALLY, MINOR FLOODING.
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST JOHNS
RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAY BRING FURTHER INCREASES IN WATER LEVELS AND LEAD TO
OTHER LOCAL RIVER RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO LOWER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES
CRESTED AT LOW-END MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIVER IS ALLOWED TO DRAIN BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 79 64 84 / 70 10 0 0
SSI 74 84 64 85 / 50 40 0 0
JAX 74 85 64 86 / 50 40 0 0
SGJ 75 85 67 86 / 50 40 0 0
GNV 74 83 64 85 / 80 50 0 0
OCF 75 82 65 83 / 80 70 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ038.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-132-137-
225-325-633.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ125-
132-137-225-325-633.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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