207
FXUS62 KJAX 111150
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
750 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- IMPROVING COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS TODAY INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
AT ALL BEACHES
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ST. JOHNS BASIN
UPDATE
MORNING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
GRADUALLY TO THE EAST ACROSS COASTAL SE GA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH
RAINFALL ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DRIER AND
SUNNIER WEATHER RETURNS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE LOWER 80S TO UPPER 70S WITH BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WIND GUSTS
OF 15-20 MPH AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCES OF T'STORMS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS FROM
MARION COUNTY TOWARD ST. AUGUSTINE, SOUTHWARD, WHERE BETTER
SURFACE INSTABILITY RESIDES WITH DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 70S. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH, LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. MOST RAINFALL WILL BE
LIGHT.
MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS USHERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
NOW ACROSS OUR FAR NW GA ZONES WHERE THE DOUGLAS DEW PTS JUST
DROPPED TO 63 DEG.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED T'STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS MORNING
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, BUT IMPROVE SUNDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO
OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH FORMERLY ISAIAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE MOSTLY NIGHTTIME PASSAGE, THOUGH WITH FORECAST CAPE IN
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KNOTS,
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
T'STORM THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE A RATHER ROBUST UPDRAFT/TALL STORM FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND GIVEN THE TIMING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS WITH SOME CLEARING FOR WESTERN AREAS TOWARDS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILL IN. LOWS WILL BE MILD MAINLY IN
THE 70S, WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS.
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO START DRYING OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING, SOME SLIGHT DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO LATE
MORNING AND TOWARDS ABOUT MIDDAY, THOUGH HI RES GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY
EXCITED ABOUT THIS IDEA AND GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR/SUN ANGLE ETC.,
I'M NOT REALLY EITHER. IN FACT, MOST OF TODAY WILL LIKELY TURN OUT
TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY AS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL CLEAR OUT MOST CLOUD COVER FROM WEST
TO EAST AND LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S FOR MOST WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING. AS THIS OCCURS, ALSO EXPECTING COASTAL MARINE AND RIVER
FLOODING HAZARDS TO OVERALL IMPROVE, THOUGH HAVE STILL KEPT A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
THROUGH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING TO COVER LINGERING TRAPPED TIDES.
HAVE ALSO DROPPED HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
WITH A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW, BUT CERTAINLY A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 80-85 DEGREE
RANGE, WARMEST SOUTH AND EAST.
GENERALLY JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WELL AS A
PERSISTENT LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AROUND 5-10 MPH, WITH
A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUT BY END OF SUNDAY
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ON MONDAY
THE DRY STABLE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT ABOUT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVE EASTWARD AND PREVAILING FLOW VEERS TO
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR
INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST
AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS PREVAILING FLOW
SHIFTS ABOUT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER CURRENT MODELS SHOW SOME
DISPARITY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MIDWEEK WITH MAX AND
MIN TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WHERE PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS WHERE INCLUDED WITH
BRIEF 2-3 HR TEMPO GROUPS FOR GUSTY TS WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND
RESTRICTIONS OF IFR TO MVFR. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH WIND SHIFT FROM SW
THIS MORNING TO WSW TO W AFTER 18Z WITH POST-FRONTAL GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WATERS TODAY, MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND EXITS EAST OF
THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK IMPROVES SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
TODAY FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT SOME LINGERING LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS WILL KEEP RISK FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY DIURNAL WESTERLY WINDS DROPPING OFF BEFORE THIS EVENING.
DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
INTO NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO BE MORE OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUES FOR THE SATILLA AT ATKINSON WHICH IS
CRESTING IN LOWER-END MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY AND THE ST.
MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY WHICH IS HOVERING JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. THE SATILLA AT WAYCROSS IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS WEEK.
SOME TRIBUTARIES OF THE ST. JOHNS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL DRAINS. LOCATIONS INCLUDE JULINGTON CREEK,
THOMAS CREEK, AND POTTSBURG CREEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ADJUSTED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO FOCUS BETWEEN DOWNTOWN
JAX SOUTHWARD TO WELAKA AND CRESCENT LAKE AREAS WHERE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. PEAK
HIGH TIDES WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN WITH LOWERING PEAK AMPLITUDES.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVEL
DEPARTURES CONTINUING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
SHANDS BRIDGE WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION OF MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 63 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 82 66 85 67 / 40 0 0 0
JAX 83 63 86 64 / 40 0 0 0
SGJ 84 66 85 66 / 50 0 0 0
GNV 82 62 85 62 / 40 0 0 0
OCF 82 64 83 63 / 60 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-325-633.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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