659
FXUS62 KJAX 111658
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1258 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR ST. MARYS & SATILLA AT ATKINSON
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
DRIER, BECOMING MOSLTY CLEAR WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS TRAILING
TODAY'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THROUGH ABOUT 2-3 PM, THERE IS ABOUT A
20-50% OF A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE TO OCALA, WITH A LONE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE (CHANCE < 10%)
WITH THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHER. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AND BREEZY WNW
WINDS FUNNEL ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NO RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK (FRIDAY TIMEFRAME).
WITH ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, THE CHANCE OF INLAND
FOG WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE THIS WEEK. TONIGHT, BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO KEEP FOG MINIMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS,
BUT WE COULD HAVE SOME FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTH-CENTRAL
FL, GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY
WITH SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 60S TO EVEN A
FEW UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO MID 60S TOWARD THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN AND COAST UNDER OFFSHORE WESTERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR AREA
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE INLAND LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL PROGRESS
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN EXPAND TOWARDS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OZARKS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING, WITH A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS INTO OUR
AREA, WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH AREA-WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING. COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
MORNING ON THE HEELS OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, FOLLOWED BY
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY LOOSENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO UNIFORMLY CLIMB
TO MID 80S, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY. FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY FALLING TO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE, WITH A FEW INLAND
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE
TO MID-OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE EXPANDING TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE
RELOCATING TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NORTHERLY EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, SUNSHINE
AND A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO NUDGE UPWARDS AT
INLAND LOCATIONS, WHERE UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST, WHILE AN ONSHORE
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS FALLING
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS, KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LOWS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, EXCEPT MID 60S FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL. PATCHY TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE, A
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE
RANGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS PREVAILING FLOW
SHIFTS ABOUT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER CURRENT MODELS SHOW SOME
DISPARITY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MIDWEEK WITH MAX AND
MIN TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
MVFR CIGS AT SGJ WILL YIELD TO VFR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW EXPECT
FOR MVFR DUE TO BR ADVERTISED AT VQQ AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. DRIER AIR
AND PROGRESSIVELY CLEARING SKIES INTO TONIGHT TRAILING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM WSW TO MORE WNW AT TIMES
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. FOG AND SHALLOW LOW STRATUS
POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS WEEK DUE TO VERY SATURATED GROUND.
MARINE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRY
WEATHER AND SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK IMPROVES SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
TODAY FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT SOME LINGERING LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS WILL KEEP RISK FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
SPEEDS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS CREATING GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AREA-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE
SPEEDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER TRANSPORT SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL YIELD GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON TUESDAY,
WHILE GOOD VALUES CONTINUE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY, WITH FAIR
TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES CONTINUING AT INLAND
LOCATIONS, WHILE POOR VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUES FOR THE SATILLA AT ATKINSON WHICH IS
CRESTING IN LOWER-END MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY AND THE ST.
MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY WHICH IS HOVERING JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. THE SATILLA AT WAYCROSS IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS WEEK.
SOME TRIBUTARIES OF THE ST. JOHNS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL DRAINS. LOCATIONS INCLUDE JULINGTON CREEK,
THOMAS CREEK, AND POTTSBURG CREEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ADJUSTED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO FOCUS BETWEEN DOWNTOWN JAX
SOUTHWARD TO WELAKA AND CRESCENT LAKE AREAS WHERE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. PEAK HIGH TIDES
WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN WITH LOWERING PEAK AMPLITUDES. NORTHERLY WINDS
RETURN MONDAY AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES CONTINUING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE SHANDS BRIDGE WITH AN EXTENDED
DURATION OF MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 66 85 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 63 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 66 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 62 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 64 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-325-633.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page