819
FXUS62 KJAX 111903
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
303 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- IMPROVING COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
DRIER, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
TRAILING TODAY'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
FUNNEL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NO RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK (FRIDAY TIME FRAME).
WITH ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, THE CHANCE OF
INLAND FOG WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE THIS WEEK. TONIGHT,
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO KEEP FOG MINIMAL
ACROSS MOST AREAS, BUT WE COULD HAVE SOME FORM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INLAND NORTH-CENTRAL FL, GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER.
SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH LOW
60S TO EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO MID 60S TOWARD THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND COAST UNDER OFFSHORE WESTERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR AREA.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE INLAND LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL PROGRESS
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN EXPAND TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OZARKS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING, WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A
SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA, WITH PWATS REMAINING
BELOW 1 INCH AREA-WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. COOL
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY MORNING ON THE HEELS OF A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, FOLLOWED BY OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY LOOSENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO UNIFORMLY CLIMB TO MID 80S, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MID-OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOWS GENERALLY FALLING TO
THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE, WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO MID-OCTOBER
CLIMATOLOGY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE EXPANDING TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE RELOCATING TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT, RESULTING IN OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NORTHERLY
EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, SUNSHINE AND A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO NUDGE UPWARDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHERE UPPER
80S ARE FORECAST, WHILE AN ONSHORE BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE LINGERING DRY
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, KEEPING
HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOWS
FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, EXCEPT MID 60S FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL. PATCHY TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN
THE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OTHERWISE, A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOWS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FUNNELING INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA.
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE MAY
MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO ADVECT A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NORTHEAST FL COASTAL COUNTIES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS PWATS SLOWLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1 INCH,
BUT MODEL BLENDS CURRENTLY KEEP MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 10
PERCENT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER
80S INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS, ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO THE
60-65 DEGREE RANGE, WHILE A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
FORMATION
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
LOCALLY DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH LONG TERM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS
CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS,
WITH THE FRONT OTHERWISE PASSING THROUGH MOSTLY DRY FOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS AGAIN CLIMBING TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY CROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ARRIVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY NEXT SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY, WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEDGE DOWN
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BEGINNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS POTENTIALLY ADVECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FL COAST.
THESE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS, WHILE LOWS POTENTIALLY FALL TO THE 50- 55 DEGREE
RANGE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z TOMORROW, EXCEPT FOR MVFR DUE TO BR ADVERTISED AT VQQ AFTER
07Z TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSIVELY CLEARING SKIES INTO
TONIGHT TRAILING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER FROM WSW TO MORE WNW AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS.
MARINE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF
ST. AUGUSTINE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER AND SUBSIDING
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST
OF THE REGION MONDAY THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MID
TO LATE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK IMPROVES SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
TODAY AS FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT SOME LINGERING
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL KEEP RISK FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY.
THIS MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
SPEEDS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS CREATING GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AREA-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE
SPEEDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER TRANSPORT SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL YIELD GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON TUESDAY,
WHILE GOOD VALUES CONTINUE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY, WITH FAIR
TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES CONTINUING AT INLAND
LOCATIONS, WHILE POOR VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUES FOR THE SATILLA AT ATKINSON WHICH
IS CRESTING IN LOWER-END MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY AND THE ST.
MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY WHICH IS HOVERING JUST ABOVE MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. THE SATILLA AT WAYCROSS IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW
MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS WEEK.
SOME TRIBUTARIES OF THE ST. JOHNS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL DRAINS. LOCATIONS INCLUDE
JULINGTON CREEK, THOMAS CREEK, AND POTTSBURG CREEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ADJUSTED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO FOCUS BETWEEN DOWNTOWN
JAX SOUTHWARD TO WELAKA AND CRESCENT LAKE AREAS WHERE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. PEAK
HIGH TIDES WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN WITH LOWERING PEAK AMPLITUDES.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVEL
DEPARTURES CONTINUING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
SHANDS BRIDGE WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION OF MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 84 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 64 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 63 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 66 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 62 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 63 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-325-633.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page