437
FXUS62 KJAX 112335
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
735 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- IMPROVING COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
- PATCHY TO AREAS FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY & FRIDAY NIGHT
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
DRIER, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS TRAILING
TODAY'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THROUGH ABOUT 2-3 PM, THERE IS
ABOUT A 20-50% OF A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO OCALA, WITH A LONE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE (CHANCE < 10%) WITH THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHER.
ELSEWHERE, DRIER AND BREEZY WNW WINDS FUNNEL ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
LATER THIS WEEK (FRIDAY TIMEFRAME).
WITH ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, THE CHANCE OF INLAND
FOG WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE THIS WEEK. TONIGHT, BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO KEEP FOG MINIMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS,
BUT WE COULD HAVE SOME FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTH-CENTRAL
FL, GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY
WITH SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 60S TO EVEN A
FEW UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO MID 60S TOWARD THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN AND COAST UNDER OFFSHORE WESTERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR AREA
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE INLAND LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL PROGRESS
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN EXPAND TOWARDS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OZARKS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING, WITH A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS INTO OUR
AREA, WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 1 INCH AREA-WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING. COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
MORNING ON THE HEELS OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, FOLLOWED BY
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY LOOSENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO UNIFORMLY CLIMB
TO MID 80S, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID-OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY. FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY FALLING TO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE, WITH A FEW INLAND
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE
TO MID-OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE EXPANDING TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE
RELOCATING TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING
IN OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NORTHERLY EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, SUNSHINE
AND A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO NUDGE UPWARDS AT
INLAND LOCATIONS, WHERE UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST, WHILE AN ONSHORE
BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN DEWPOINTS FALLING
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS, KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LOWS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, EXCEPT MID 60S FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL. PATCHY TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE, A
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE
RANGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE MAY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH
TO ADVECT A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
NORTHEAST FL COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS PWATS SLOWLY
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1 INCH, BUT MODEL BLENDS CURRENTLY KEEP MEASURABLE
RAIN CHANCES BELOW 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 80S AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS, ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO THE
60-65 DEGREE RANGE, WHILE A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORMATION
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER LOCALLY
DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
LONG TERM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATING PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS, WITH THE FRONT OTHERWISE PASSING
THROUGH MOSTLY DRY FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS AGAIN
CLIMBING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS OUR REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY CROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ARRIVING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY NEXT
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, WITH COOL AIR
ADVECTION KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS POTENTIALLY
ADVECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST FL COAST. THESE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 60S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHILE LOWS POTENTIALLY FALL TO THE 50-
55 DEGREE RANGE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S
FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
VFR PREVAILS AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE AREA
WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM GNV TO SGJ
TONIGHT. SOME CHANCE OF SHALLOW FOG LATE TONIGHT, PROBABLY AT MVFR
CATEGORY, AT VQQ FOR A FEW HOURS. CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF SHALLOW FOG
AT GNV BY ABOUT 10Z AS WELL BUT LEAVING OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW
CHANCE. FOR SFC WINDS, LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS TONIGHT NEAR 3-
7 KT EXPECTED TO VEER TO NW ON MONDAY UP TO NEAR 8-12G16KT AFTER 14Z.
MARINE
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUBSIDING
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MIDDAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION CRITERIA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY, AND FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK IMPROVES SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE
TODAY FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT SOME LINGERING LONGER
PERIOD SWELLS WILL KEEP RISK FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK
AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
SPEEDS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS CREATING GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AREA-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE
SPEEDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER TRANSPORT SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL YIELD GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON TUESDAY,
WHILE GOOD VALUES CONTINUE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY, WITH FAIR
TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES CONTINUING AT INLAND
LOCATIONS, WHILE POOR VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUES FOR THE SATILLA AT ATKINSON WHICH IS
CRESTING IN LOWER-END MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY AND THE ST.
MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY WHICH IS HOVERING JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. THE SATILLA AT WAYCROSS IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS WEEK.
SOME TRIBUTARIES OF THE ST. JOHNS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL DRAINS. LOCATIONS INCLUDE JULINGTON CREEK,
THOMAS CREEK, AND POTTSBURG CREEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ADJUSTED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO FOCUS BETWEEN DOWNTOWN JAX
SOUTHWARD TO WELAKA AND CRESCENT LAKE AREAS WHERE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. PEAK HIGH TIDES
WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN WITH LOWERING PEAK AMPLITUDES. NORTHERLY WINDS
RETURN MONDAY AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES CONTINUING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE SHANDS BRIDGE WITH AN EXTENDED
DURATION OF MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 84 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 63 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 66 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 62 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 63 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-325-633.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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