982
FXUS62 KJAX 120538
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
138 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- IMPROVING COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR
- PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY & FRIDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY
MORNING
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILL INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY
FRONT/TROUGH SKIMS THE AREA, SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AREA-WIDE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND, ESPECIALLY INLAND
NORTH/CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING WHERE GROUNDS ARE VERY SATURATED AND
WINDS REMAIN CALM ENOUGH. THOUGH THE DRY AIRMASS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, HIGH
TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 80S, AND DEW POINTS RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
60S. ONLY OTHER HAZARD TO MENTION IS HELD ONTO THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SEVERAL GAUGES REACHING
A MAINLY MARGINAL MINOR FLOOD STAGE. COOL AND DRY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR INLAND AREAS TUESDAY MORNING THANKS TO A
WEAKENING FLOW, THOUGH STILL EXPECTING MAINLY PATCHY POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR AREA
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE INLAND LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. PREVAILING FLOW WILL
SHIFT ABOUT TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY BRINGING A MORE ONSHORE FLOW
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL REACH UP INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR
INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEARER TO THE SHORELINE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR AREAS ALONG
THE COAST AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES DOWN FROM
OUT OF THE NORTH. SURFACE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTY
ONSHORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THIS
WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
VFR WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DRY AIR
MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR
FG/BR INLAND, MAINLY AT VQQ BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO A
PERSISTENT BREEZE AROUND 2-5 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, ONLY OTHER OPERATIONAL CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MANY DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY, WHICH
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET AND ONWARD THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE FG POTENTIAL AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING INLAND, BUT LIKELY AFTER
06Z TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN SHIFTING NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION CRITERIA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY, AND FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE TODAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW, BUT SOME LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SWELLS WILL KEEP
RISK FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON MONDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
SPEEDS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS CREATING GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AREA-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER TRANSPORT
SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL YIELD GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES ON TUESDAY, WHILE GOOD VALUES CONTINUE FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES CONTINUING AT
INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE POOR VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUES FOR THE SATILLA AT ATKINSON WHICH IS
CRESTING IN LOWER-END MINOR FLOOD STAGE TODAY AND THE ST.
MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY WHICH IS HOVERING JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. THE SATILLA AT WAYCROSS IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW MINOR
FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS WEEK.
SOME TRIBUTARIES OF THE ST. JOHNS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL DRAINS. LOCATIONS INCLUDE JULINGTON CREEK,
THOMAS CREEK, AND POTTSBURG CREEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY DOWNTOWN JAX SOUTHWARD TO
WELAKA AND CRESCENT LAKE AREAS WHERE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING. PEAK HIGH TIDES WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN WITH LOWERING
PEAK AMPLITUDES. NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST TO EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHER
WATER LEVEL DEPARTURES CONTINUING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE SHANDS BRIDGE WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION OF MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 84 66 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 84 66 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 85 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLZ038-132-137-325-633.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page