723
FXUS62 KJAX 121348
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
948 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN.
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ST. MARYS
RIVER AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA RIVER.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN.
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILL INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A WEAK SECONDARY
FRONT/TROUGH SKIMS THE AREA, SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AREA-WIDE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS TODAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY,
HIGH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 80S, AND DEW POINTS RUNNING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S. ONLY OTHER HAZARD TO MENTION IS HELD ONTO THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES
SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE, AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST
SEVERAL GAUGES REACHING A MAINLY MARGINAL MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
COOL AND DRY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR INLAND AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING THANKS TO A WEAKENING FLOW, THOUGH STILL
EXPECTING MAINLY PATCHY POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR AREA.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE INLAND LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY, WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
TUESDAY, AND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY, KEEPING PWATS
GENERALLY AT 1" OR BELOW TUESDAY, WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ENTERING NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS. INLAND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH COASTAL
LOWS MORE MILD, IN THE UPPER 60S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INLAND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE DRY, WARM PATTERN LINGERS ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW 80 DEGREES AREA-
WIDE THIS WEEKEND, WITH SUSTAINED ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
NEAR 20-25 MPH, GUSTING NEAR 30-40 MPH. WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z TUESDAY AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY AT VQQ.
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 10
KNOTS BY 16Z, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS AFTER 21Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AT THE INLAND TERMINALS, WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z AT THE SGJ AND SSI COASTAL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
WILL CREATE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IF VENTURING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT, ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL APPROACH OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY AND POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK LOW AT
ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHILE LOW SURF HEIGHTS KEEP THE RISK GENERALLY LOW AT
THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, CREATING GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
AREA-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE ON TUESDAY,
WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER TRANSPORT SPEEDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL YIELD GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ON TUESDAY, WHILE GOOD VALUES CONTINUE FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
CONTINUING AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE POOR VALUES ARE EXPECTED
FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER NEAR THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ST. MARY'S RIVER NEAR THE MACCLENNY GAUGE, WHERE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOW CONFINED TO THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES IN PUTNAM COUNTY, AS WELL AS ALONG CRESCENT
LAKE IN WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTY. ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY MAY KEEP
WATER LEVELS ELEVATED TO AROUND 1.5 - 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY
GROUND DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 85 65 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 87 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 87 67 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 87 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 86 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ038-137.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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