220
FXUS62 KJAX 121745
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN.
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
SATILLA RIVER.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
- INCREASING COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN IN PUTNAM AND WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTIES.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1022 MILLIBARS) BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLING
ACROSS SOUTH FL. ALOFT...TROUGHING WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OZARKS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SEASONABLY DRY
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION ON THE HEELS OF
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
AROUND 0.6 INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO AROUND 0.9 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT OUR
REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 18Z RISING THROUGH THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S AREA-WIDE, WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR STOUT RIDGING TO EXPAND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
VEER FROM NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS
OUR REGION. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN BY EARLY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER
SUNSET AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AS DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING
AT INLAND LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT INLAND LOCATIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LIKELY KEEP COVERAGE RATHER
LOCALIZED, AND DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES REMAIN RATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S INLAND,
RANGING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. THESE
VALUES ARE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW MID-OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY
FOR OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR AREA.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE INLAND LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY, WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
TUESDAY, AND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY, KEEPING PWATS
GENERALLY AT 1" OR BELOW TUESDAY, WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ENTERING NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS. INLAND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH COASTAL
LOWS MORE MILD, IN THE UPPER 60S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INLAND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE DRY, WARM PATTERN LINGERS ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 80 DEGREES
AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND, WITH SUSTAINED ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST NEAR 20-25 MPH, GUSTING NEAR 30-40 MPH. WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, WITH 60S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z TUESDAY AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY AT VQQ.
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 21Z. SPEEDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH BELOW 5 KNOTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS TOWARDS 00Z,
WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z AT
THE SGJ AND SSI COASTAL TERMINALS. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL REDEVELOP AT THE INLAND TERMINALS
BY 14Z, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 17Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT,
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH OUR LOCAL
WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH THIS FRONT QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND POTENTIAL GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEDGES DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK LOW AT
ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END
MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHILE LOW SURF HEIGHTS KEEP THE RISK GENERALLY LOW AT
THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER TRANSPORT SPEEDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL YIELD GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES ON TUESDAY, WHILE GOOD VALUES CONTINUE FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY, WITH FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
CONTINUING AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE POOR VALUES ARE EXPECTED
FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER NEAR
THE GAUGE AT MACCLENNY, WHERE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY DISCONTINUED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOW CONFINED TO THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES IN PUTNAM COUNTY, AS WELL AS ALONG CRESCENT
LAKE IN WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTY. ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY MAY KEEP
WATER LEVELS ELEVATED TO AROUND 1.5 - 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY
GROUND DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 58 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 83 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 60 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 67 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 60 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 61 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ038-137.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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