816
FXUS62 KJAX 122342
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
742 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
- INCREASING COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS LIKELY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN IN PUTNAM AND WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTIES.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
(1022 MILLIBARS) BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLING ACROSS SOUTH FL.
ALOFT...TROUGHING WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
OZARKS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO
OUR REGION ON THE HEELS OF BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, WITH
PWATS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.6 INCHES OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO
AROUND 0.9 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES AT 18Z RISING THROUGH THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AREA-WIDE, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOW AND MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR STOUT RIDGING TO EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY BREEZE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT INLAND LOCATIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT THE DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LIKELY KEEP COVERAGE RATHER LOCALIZED,
AND DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES REMAIN RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S INLAND, RANGING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR OR JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW MID-OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY FOR OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
A BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THIS PERIOD, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AS WELL. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD, WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
- COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED
RIP RISK EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
SURGE OF WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE GREATEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST, BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PERIODS
OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT VQQ DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. FAIR
WX CUMULUS CLOUDS LOOKS LIKELY FOR A TIME OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL
TUESDAY. FOR SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH CALM
OR LIGHT VARIABLE. NORTHERLY SFC WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS
WILL REDEVELOP AT THE INLAND TERMINALS BY 14Z TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT,
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WITH THIS FRONT QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND
POTENTIAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEDGES DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK LOW AT ALL
AREA BEACHES TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
AN EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE LOW SURF
HEIGHTS KEEP THE RISK GENERALLY LOW AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER TRANSPORT SPEEDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL YIELD GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES ON TUESDAY, WHILE GOOD VALUES CONTINUE FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY, WITH FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
CONTINUING AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE POOR VALUES ARE EXPECTED
FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER NEAR THE GAUGE AT
MACCLENNY, WHERE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY
DISCONTINUED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOW CONFINED TO THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES IN PUTNAM COUNTY, AS WELL AS ALONG CRESCENT LAKE IN
WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTY. ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY MAY KEEP WATER LEVELS
ELEVATED TO AROUND 1.5 - 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 58 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 66 82 68 82 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 62 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 67 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 61 87 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 62 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ038-137.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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