099
FXUS62 KJAX 130535
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
135 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY
- INCREASING COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS LIKELY AT ALL AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN IN PUTNAM AND WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTIES.
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. PREVAILING
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY, RESULTING
A MORE ONSHORE SURFACE WIND FLOW RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE SHORELINE. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 60S FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE ST
JOHNS RIVER. POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENTS TO FORM
OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AND INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
A BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THIS PERIOD, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AS WELL. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD, WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
- COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED
RIP RISK EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
SURGE OF WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
THE GREATEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST, BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS ABOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT WINDS BUILDING FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BY
AROUND 14Z TO 16Z WITH SPEEDS REACHING UP TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL DROP OFF AND BECOME MORE MILD AND VARIABLE AFTER AROUND 23Z.
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AT VQQ IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY
AROUND 10Z.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST, AND PUSH WELL OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK LOW AT ALL
AREA BEACHES TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
AN EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE LOW SURF
HEIGHTS KEEP THE RISK GENERALLY LOW AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER NEAR THE GAUGE AT
MACCLENNY, WHERE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN RECENTLY
DISCONTINUED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOW CONFINED TO THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES IN PUTNAM COUNTY, AS WELL AS ALONG CRESCENT LAKE IN
WESTERN FLAGLER COUNTY. ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY MAY KEEP WATER LEVELS
ELEVATED TO AROUND 1.5 - 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 83 68 82 69 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 86 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 84 69 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 87 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ038-
137.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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