767
FXUS62 KJAX 131716
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
116 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER
- INLAND LATE NIGHT & MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY MORNINGS
- LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. DANGEROUS
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS, HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH,
HIGH SURF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, POTENTIAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
COAST POSSIBLE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL AT COAST, ICW &
ST. JOHNS BASIN
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA, WITH GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.6-1.0 INCHES, LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND,
AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND, AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AREA.
CHANCES FOR FOG TONIGHT HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING, WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG GENERALLY EAST OF
WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND ALSO FOR INTERIOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THROUGH SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL OVER INLAND AREAS
A BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THIS PERIOD, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AS WELL. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD, WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
PERIOD. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH NIGHTS, MAINLY IN THE 4AM-10AM TIME FRAME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING TIDAL FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED
RIP RISK EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
SURGE OF WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MORE TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, ALONG WITH HIGH SURF POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PERIODS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED AS WELL DUE
TO WEAKENED STATE OF THE LOCAL BEACHES DUE TO THE LAST NOR'EASTER
EVENT LAST WEEK.
THE GREATEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF NE FLORIDA, BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
ALONG THE DUVAL, ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COASTLINES AND DOWN THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN, MAINLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS THAT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS ABOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AND BECOME
MORE MILD AND VARIABLE AFTER AROUND 23Z. EARLY MORNING FOG IS LIKELY
AT ALL SITES OTHER THAN SGJ WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT SSI, JAX, VQQ, AND GNV.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST, AND PUSH WELL OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY AND POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK LOW AT ALL
AREA BEACHES TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
AN EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE LOW SURF
HEIGHTS KEEP THE RISK GENERALLY LOW AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. MIN RH'S WILL
FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASINS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 68 82 69 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 64 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 69 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 63 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 65 87 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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