688
FXUS62 KJAX 132334
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
734 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER
- INLAND LATE NIGHT & MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY MORNINGS
- LOCAL NOREASTER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. DANGEROUS SURF ZONE
CONDITIONS - HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH, HIGH SURF. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, POTENTIAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT COAST POSSIBLE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL AT COAST, ICW & ST. JOHNS BASIN
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA, WITH GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.6-1.0 INCHES, LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND,
AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND, AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AREA.
CHANCES FOR FOG TONIGHT HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING, WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG GENERALLY EAST OF
WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND ALSO FOR INTERIOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THROUGH SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL POOL INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHICH WILL PRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SURGE OF WINDS WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING TIDAL FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED
RIP RISK EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY. INVERTED
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WHICH
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL TROUGHING WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATER THIS PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE THIS PERIOD, BUT THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READING ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL
CALM OVERNIGHT AS FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN
08-13Z, FOG WILL LOWER VSBYS TO IFR/LIFR FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SGJ. 1/4SM VSBY IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT VQQ, SSI, JAX, AND GNV. FOG
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 14Z. NE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS THEN
DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST, AND PUSH WELL OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK LOW AT ALL
AREA BEACHES TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
AN EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE LOW SURF
HEIGHTS KEEP THE RISK GENERALLY LOW AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LATE NIGHT
- AND EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL OVER INLAND AREAS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. MIN RH'S WILL
FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASINS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 67 84 66 85 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 66 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 70 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 66 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 66 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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