616
FXUS64 KSHV 141657
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A
CLOUDLESS SKY WAS OBSERVED ON AREA SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, SFC RIDGING WAS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE UPPER/MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND IF ANYTHING, GIVEN THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE,
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OUTDO NBM FORECAST MAX
TEMPS TODAY. HOURLY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AT 15Z AND 16Z WERE
RUNNING SOME 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HOURLY TEMPS SO FOR THE
UPDATE, DID RAISE MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS
ARE WITHIN FORECAST NORMS SO NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT...13.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH PREVAILING.
A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S. COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO PREVAIL ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, EXPECT STABLE CONDITIONS WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH FRIDAY. /05/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. ADDITIONALLY, THE DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
FROM THE WEST AS A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. BY THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 60 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
/05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR FOR DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
1022MB COMING IN FOR A LANDING TODAY IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR
NW WINDS 5-15KT TODAY WILL VEER TO NE FOR FRIDAY AS THIS AIR MASS
DRIFTS EASTWARD WITH STILL JUST SOME CIRRUS INTO THE EARLY WKND.
SKIES CLOUD UP A GOOD BIT MORE ON SUNDAY AS WE MOVE INTO A BRIEF
WET PERIOD MONDAY/TUESDAY TO GET THE HOLIDAY WEEK STORM THROUGH
EARLY, BUT IT IS LOOKING PRETTY CHILLY UNDER A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, THEN LOWS IN THE 30S.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 45 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 72 42 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 71 37 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 73 42 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 71 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 72 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 73 41 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 44 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
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