363
FXUS64 KSHV 142324
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
524 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2PM READINGS
IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS. THIS DESPITE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WITH
VALUES SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES DRIER THAN THIS SAME TIME ON
WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND
THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT SFC RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME BUT OVERNIGHT, THE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD
AND WILL BASICALLY BISECT THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES IN PLACE, SHOULD SEE AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, HAVE UNDERCUT NBM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY,
GOING CLOSER TO THE COLDER MAV MOS VALUES AS THE NBM TYPICALLY HAS
A WARM BIAS AT NIGHT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION,
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BUT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
WHILE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DOES SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, THE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD AND THERE IS
REALLY NOT ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ACROSS OUR
WESTERN THIRD TO COMBAT THE MIXING DOWN OF AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SAW THIS TODAY AND SEE
ABSOLUTELY NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT SEE IT AGAIN ON FRIDAY SO
SHAVED NBM DEWPOINTS ON FRIDAY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE
NBM HAS A WARM BIAS AT NIGHT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE, IT HAS A COOL
BIAS DURING THE DAY AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THAT TODAY. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE NBM TEMPERATURES FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
STAYED A LITTLE CLOSER TO NBM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT EVEN
THROUGH WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OUR WESTERN THIRD WHERE A LITTLE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE MIXING.
13
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
OUR BIG WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND ON THE HEELS OF
RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL
INTRODUCE THIS WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80
DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN HOWEVER WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT'S APPEARANCE, AT LEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MEANS THE COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME TO A DRAMATIC END.
WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING A BIG COOL DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND WHILE THAT APPEARS TO STILL BE IN THE OFFERING, WE HAVE TO
GET THEIR FIRST. PRECEDING THE BIG COOL DOWN WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD THAT WILL
MAKE ITS APPEARANCE SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA OF THE COUNTRY AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORCING WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP RAPIDLY
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS
LIKE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR REGION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPC'S 15%
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 5 OUTLOOK MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO OUR REGION FOR THEIR NEXT UPDATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RELOADS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST IT DOES PER THE LATEST 12Z
ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE WED-THU
TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MIGRATES THE
ENTIRE TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WOULD
THEREFORE SHUTDOWN ANY KIND OF RETURNING MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE
GULF AND WOULD THEREFORE END RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF THE BIG COOL
DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN
DETERMINISTIC PROGS, WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT AS EVEN THE WETTER, SLOWER ECMWF HAS
PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION BY THU OF NEXT
WEEK.
SPEAKING OF THE COLDER AIR, IT WILL BE MODIFIED SOMEWHAT DEPENDING
ON RAIN CHANCES ON WED BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 50S FOR THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN THIRD BY THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING OF
NEXT WEEK AND MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH JUST BEYOND THIS 7-DAY
FORECAST. STAY TUNED.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD TAF PACKAGE THIS EVENING AS VFR REMAINS
ACROSS ALL LOCAL TERMINALS. SKC WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO FRIDAY. VRB WINDS ARE
PREVAILED TO START, BUT WILL TURN MORE N/NE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-5KT. HI-RES SURFACE VISIBILITY PRODUCTS THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN BULLISH ON THE IDEA OF FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT
OR NEAR MLU/ELD SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE FALLS SOMEWHERE IN
THE MIDDLE WITH THIS FOR NOW, BUT HAVE ELECTED TO TEMPO IN FOR
THIS PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE. IF THIS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE,
IT WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED IN THE 06Z PACKAGE.
KNAPP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 43 74 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 42 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 36 69 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 40 70 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 36 71 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 43 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 40 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 43 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53
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