724
FXUS64 KSHV 151707
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1107 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS IT APPEARS MOST
THINGS ARE ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WERE MAYBE TRENDING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SO I ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT TREND, BUT DID NOT INCREASE THE OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY. WILL BE WORKING ON THE FULL FORECAST UPDATE HERE
SHORTLY. /33/
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CLOSELY ANCHORED JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING,
YIELDING RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF COOLING TO GO PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NATION'S MID-SECTION. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUNNY SKIES
ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH VERY PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER MORE
EASTERLY BUT REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER NE
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY.
ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WILL FOLLOW UNDER PREVAILING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S, BUT A FEW UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. BY SATURDAY, S/SE FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE
SFC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND OH VALLEY.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY SO LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RUN A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
/19/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
AS WE TRANSITION TO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS OUT WEST ACROSS BAJA. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EJECT NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SW ON SUNDAY, PROVIDING THE
NECESSARY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE ARK-LA-TEX FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR WESTERN HALF.
HOWEVER, THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE TROUGH
WILL FINALLY PIVOT EASTWARD AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THIS POTENTIAL
THREAT WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A MUCH DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL
SEASON WILL EJECT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES, BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
FOR WEDNESDAY TO RESPECT THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS
SE INTO THE ROCKIES. AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
FOR THE 15/12Z TAFS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA AIRSPACE. PATCHY FROST AND
AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY, CLEARING THROUGH THE
MORNING, QUICKLY ENOUGH TO NOT NECESSITATE PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKC PREVAILING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR 5 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF UP
TO 10 KTS POSSIBLE.
SP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 48 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 71 43 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 68 39 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 72 44 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 71 40 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 72 48 74 61 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 72 45 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 74 47 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page