703
FXUS64 KSHV 151956
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR
REGION, WITH TROUGHING ON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS FUELING THE CLEAR SKIES AND "WARMER"
CONDITIONS. MOVING DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THIS
TROUGH WILL BE A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
REGION. BEING WEDGED BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, THUS INCREASING MOISTURE FOR US AND SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. /33/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, CENTERING ITSELF OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, WE COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, HOWEVER,
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY, WE WILL
HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD
BECOME SEVERE. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH CAPE ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO OVERCOME THE
LACK OF CAPE. TYPICALLY THESE HIGH-SHEAR, LOW-CAPE SEVERE WEATHER
SETUPS CAN FORM INTO LARGE SQUALL LINES THAT CAN PRODUCE EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS. WHILE WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED BY THE SPC, I
THINK THIS COULD CHANGE IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS. AS SUCH THIS SYSTEM
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM THIS
SYSTEM, THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET,
WITH PERHAPS SOME MUCH COOLER OR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD. /33/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
FOR THE 15/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER,
GAINING A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 48 75 60 77 / 0 0 0 40
MLU 43 73 54 78 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 40 69 50 70 / 0 0 0 60
TXK 44 72 56 73 / 0 0 0 50
ELD 40 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 48 73 62 74 / 0 0 0 70
GGG 45 73 59 74 / 0 0 0 60
LFK 47 75 62 77 / 0 0 10 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...16
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