513
FXUS64 KSHV 170439
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1039 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED 24 HRS
AGO, AS LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING
WITH THE 03Z OBS INDICATING TEMPS SOME 8-15+ DEGREES WARMER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR AND MUCH OF N LA. THIS
HAS LARGELY BEEN THE RESULT OF EXTENSIVE CU CIGS THAT HAVE SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS, AS WELL AS A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY NE INTO THE OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE, THE MID-EVENING SFC
THETA-E ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A WARM FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INLAND
ALONG THE SE TX COAST ATTM, WHICH WILL LIFT N THROUGH SE TX
OVERNIGHT. THIS BNDRY, ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC FORCING NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT, MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT IN ISOLATED -SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF E TX
LATE TONIGHT. THUS, THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA
LOOKS GOOD, BEFORE THIS POTENTIAL SPREAD FARTHER NNE ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD.
HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT CU CIGS AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
NOT ALLOW MUCH MORE OF A FALL IN TEMPS AS OF 03Z, WITH READINGS
REMAINING MOSTLY STEADY AND EVEN SLOWLY RISING LATE IN ADVANCE OF
THE LIFTING FRONT. DID BUMP UP MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, AND REFLECTED HOURLY
TEMPS AS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, ALONGSIDE AN
INCREASE IN SCATTERED -SHRA IN THE INCREASING WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION REGIME AND ATTENDANT ISENTROPIC LIFT, AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER NRN BAJA AS IT DRIFTS E INTO NW OLD MX.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
NO NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THIS PACKAGE WHEN COMPARED TO THE 00Z.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE,
SUPPORTING A MIX OF BKN/OVC SUB 5KFT CIGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF SHRA CLOSER TO 18Z AND ONWARD. HI-RES SOLUTIONS THIS EVENING DO
ADVERTISE THIS TAPERING OFF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THAT
BEING SAID, LOW CIGS AND VSBY REDUCTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT
HAZARDS IN THIS TAF PERIOD STARTING AS EARLY AS 06Z THIS MORNING.
KNAPP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 78 67 83 / 10 60 30 80
MLU 53 77 63 82 / 0 30 10 40
DEQ 52 69 61 73 / 10 50 70 90
TXK 59 73 64 78 / 10 60 50 90
ELD 51 76 61 81 / 0 50 20 70
TYR 62 76 67 77 / 20 60 50 90
GGG 61 76 66 78 / 20 60 40 90
LFK 63 78 68 81 / 20 60 30 90
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...53
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