619
FXUS64 KSHV 180519 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1119 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SHV RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWCASES LIGHT TO MODERATE REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS EXITING THE NW ZONES OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. 00Z HI-RES
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED LINEAR COMPLEX TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EVENING DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS NOT STRAYED FAR FROM THE
CURRENT ADVERTISED FORECAST. HOWEVER, TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AT THIS HOUR WHEN LOOKING AT THE SFC HOURLIES. THESE HAVE
BEEN CORRECTED TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS. AGAIN, THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AHEAD OF WHAT DOES MATERIALIZE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED UPDATES, NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY NOTE TO ADD REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW IS THAT
THE EVENING HI-RES HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DISCRETE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINEAR MODE MOVING THROUGH E TX. THIS
WILL BE A TREND THAT IS MONITORED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AND/OR CONTINUES IN FUTURE RUNS.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF E TX OVERNIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING, WITH SIMILAR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER E ACROSS
WRN LA/SW AR OVERNIGHT, AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E TX/WRN LA/SW AR BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AHEAD OF A N-S LINEAR
LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MARCH E INTO E TX/EXTREME SE OK
BY/AFTER 18Z. DEEPER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE
FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND INTO WRN LA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER, WITH VCTS MAINTAINED FOR ALL BUT THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS AND REDUCED
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE CONVECTION ALTHOUGH CIGS/VSBYS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BETWEEN 02-05Z
TUESDAY, WITH SKC RETURNING FROM W TO E BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. SE WINDS 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25KTS OVER E TX, WILL INCREASE TO 13-20KTS WITH NON-CONVECTIVE
GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 81 55 76 / 40 80 50 0
MLU 62 80 61 76 / 10 30 100 10
DEQ 63 72 46 72 / 70 90 10 0
TXK 66 78 52 74 / 60 90 30 0
ELD 62 79 53 75 / 30 60 80 0
TYR 68 74 52 73 / 60 90 0 0
GGG 67 78 50 74 / 50 90 20 0
LFK 69 79 53 75 / 20 80 30 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
AVIATION...15
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