397
FXUS64 KSHV 182002
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COLD FRONT, WHERE THEY LOOK TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS OF NOON, THERE WAS STILL A PRETTY
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION OVERHEAD, BUT THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
INVERSION LIMITS THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN A LACK OF
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
THE OVERALL THINKING FROM THIS MORNING STILL STANDS REGARDING
EVOLUTION AND TIMING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER, AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES, AS SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DRAMATICALLY DECREASE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN, WITH THE SEVERE THREAT COMPLETELY EXITING THE REGION ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN TURN, THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OPEN, AND IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OPEN FOR THE
NEXT 8-10 HOURS AS PEAK HEATING ALLOWS, OR BEFORE STORMS GET
UNDERCUT BY THE EAST MOVING FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
EVENING, REALLY ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET UNDERWAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-60S, BEFORE FALLING
TOMORROW INTO THE LOW 40S AND 50S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SWING IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
REALLY BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED,
IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES COME THURSDAY MORNING. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR THIS SEASONABLE FEEL TO
REMAIN THROUGH THEN. HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARDS NEXT WORKWEEK. ASIDE FROM
THAT, NO WEATHER THREATS OR IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS E TX TERMINALS FROM 18/18Z-18/21Z AND ELSEWHERE FROM
18/21Z TO 19/02Z. CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF TSRA CONDITIONS, SOUTH WINDS 15KTS AND
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHWEST UNDER 6KTS TONIGHT. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 77 51 66 / 40 0 0 0
MLU 58 77 52 65 / 100 0 0 0
DEQ 45 72 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 51 75 46 63 / 20 0 0 0
ELD 50 76 47 64 / 90 0 0 0
TYR 51 74 47 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 50 75 47 64 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 51 76 50 66 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...05
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