978
FXUS64 KSHV 190318
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
918 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TORNADO WATCH 711 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z CITING A DECREASE
IN THE TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE HOUR AND A HALF PRIOR TO
EXPIRATION TIME AND FRONTAL BASED UNDERCUTTING OF THE CONVECTIVE
PRESENTATION.
THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MARCH
ONWARD HOWEVER, NOW EAST OF SHV, SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. ASIDE FROM
THIS, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISPLACE CONVECTION EAST
OF THE SHV CWA BORDER, WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT.
HI-RES SURFACE MODELING HAS PICKED UP ON SOME DENSE FOG PROBS ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS ADDS UP AS T/TD RELATION REMAINS TIGHT,
ALONG WITH A SATURATED SOIL FOLLOWING PASSING RAINFALL. AS A
RESULT, ELECTED TO ADD A LAYER OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW AM. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVERNIGHT IF TRENDS SUPPORT. THE OVERNIGHT TEAM WILL
EVALUATE THIS AND DETERMINE IF NECESSARY.
KNAPP
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COLD FRONT, WHERE THEY LOOK TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS OF NOON, THERE WAS STILL A PRETTY
STOUT CAPPING INVERSION OVERHEAD, BUT THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
INVERSION LIMITS THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN A LACK OF
DAYTIME HEATING, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
THE OVERALL THINKING FROM THIS MORNING STILL STANDS REGARDING
EVOLUTION AND TIMING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER, AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES, AS SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DRAMATICALLY DECREASE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN, WITH THE SEVERE THREAT COMPLETELY EXITING THE REGION ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN TURN, THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OPEN, AND IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OPEN FOR THE
NEXT 8-10 HOURS AS PEAK HEATING ALLOWS, OR BEFORE STORMS GET
UNDERCUT BY THE EAST MOVING FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
EVENING, REALLY ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO GET UNDERWAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-60S, BEFORE FALLING
TOMORROW INTO THE LOW 40S AND 50S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SWING IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
REALLY BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED,
IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES COME THURSDAY MORNING. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR THIS SEASONABLE FEEL TO
REMAIN THROUGH THEN. HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND TOWARDS NEXT WORKWEEK. ASIDE FROM
THAT, NO WEATHER THREATS OR IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE LONG-
TERM FORECAST.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINALS THROUGH 19/02Z
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD AT 20/00Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 77 51 66 / 40 0 0 0
MLU 58 77 52 65 / 100 0 0 0
DEQ 45 72 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 51 75 46 63 / 20 0 0 0
ELD 50 76 47 64 / 90 0 0 0
TYR 51 74 47 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 50 75 47 64 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 51 76 50 66 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page