858
FXUS64 KSHV 191837
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1237 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
AS OF 10:45 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE FROM THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG DIMINISHING WITH INCREASED
INSOLATION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE MID-70S AS
A RESULT. WITH WEATHER AND OBSERVED TRENDS CONTINUING AS
ANTICIPATED, FORECAST GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME. /16/
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORM
COMPLEX HAVE PUSHED SHARPLY TO THE NORTH, LEAVING AN INFLUX OF
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR AND A MUGGY, MISTY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ARKLATEX UNDER CLEARING SKIES. AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SHELTERED REGIONS WITH CALMING WINDS AND NARROW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS. WHERE FOG DEVELOPS, RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING.
WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH AND EAST UNDER ABUNDANT SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, ADOPTING A WESTERLY ORIENTATION,
WHILE LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH
PUSHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME
WILL INTRODUCE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY, INITIATING THE
PRONOUNCED AND LONG EXPECTED COLD AIR INTRUSION WHICH WILL BRING
ABOUT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE ARKLATEX, IN THE FORM OF
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEING RESTRICTED TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
AREAWIDE.
SP
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OUTLINED ABOVE WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING INTO
THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AMPLIFIES FURTHER AS
IT SHIFTS EAST, ENHANCING THE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
THE ARKLATEX. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGHOUT, WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE, EVEN NUDGED
BELOW AVERAGE WITH ENHANCED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE PRECISELY HOW
DRAMATIC SAID COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE. FOLLOWING THE TREND
ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB
ONLY INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY, FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE WEEK, WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S, WITH A FEW OF OUR NORTHERNMOST SITES DROPPING TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE ARKLATEX,
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, QUICKLY BUMPING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND EVEN 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY THE TAIL
END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, NEXT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD BE AT KELD/KMLU
BRIEFLY AROUND MIDNIGHT, AS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING DRIER
AIR AND GUSTY NW WINDS. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE FOG. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 51 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 76 52 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 71 40 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 74 46 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 75 46 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 75 47 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 75 46 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 76 49 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20
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