312
FXUS64 KSHV 200326
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
926 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
SECOND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING,
CURRENTLY ENTERING MCCURTAIN COUNTY, OK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS DOING A PHENOMENAL JOB PICKING UP ON THE MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LOOKING NW OF THE FRONT, A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS GRADIENT WILL
ELEVATE LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH, AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25
MPH BEFORE DECOUPLING BY THE EVENING. IF SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE
IN THE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
OF THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE EVALUATED BY THE
MIDNIGHT TEAM. ASIDE FROM THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A NOTICEABLY COOLER AM, THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE COLDEST
WE SEE THIS WEEK. THAT WILL COME TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ONLY UPDATE TO PROVIDE WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST HOURLIES
TO MEET LATEST TRENDS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE ADDITION OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM THOUGH SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES LOWER VSBY
SOME. IF IT DOES OCCUR, IT SHOULD BE PATCHY IN COVERAGE BEFORE
BURNING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
KNAPP
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FOUR STATE REGION STARTING THIS WEEK
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES TOMORROW. ONGOING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AXIS
VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM SOUTHWESTERLY, TO ZONAL, THEN TO
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS USHERED IN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ARRIVE TOMORROW WITH
MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S,
RESPECTIVELY. /16/.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
DRY AND NEAR-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS. THIS IS DUE TO LARGE-
SCALE RIDGING, EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THAT
WEAKENS/FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY, WHILE SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ALLOWING FOR MORE
ROBUST SOUTHERLY WINDS. SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS FROM NEAR-NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOW-TO-MID 60S AS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION) APPROACHES.
/16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 20/06Z TAF PERIOD, AS
SKC WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT W OR LT/VRB WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
NW AND INCREASE 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS AFTER 08Z WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER
00Z THURSDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 52 65 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 41 61 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 46 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 64 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 49 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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