902
FXUS64 KSHV 200452 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1052 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
SECOND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING,
CURRENTLY ENTERING MCCURTAIN COUNTY, OK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS DOING A PHENOMENAL JOB PICKING UP ON THE MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LOOKING NW OF THE FRONT, A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT HAS
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS GRADIENT WILL
ELEVATE LOCAL WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH, AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25
MPH BEFORE DECOUPLING BY THE EVENING. IF SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE
IN THE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
OF THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE EVALUATED BY THE
MIDNIGHT TEAM. ASIDE FROM THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH A NOTICEABLY COOLER AM, THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE COLDEST
WE SEE THIS WEEK. THAT WILL COME TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ONLY UPDATE TO PROVIDE WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO ADJUST HOURLIES
TO MEET LATEST TRENDS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE ADDITION OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM THOUGH SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES LOWER VSBY
SOME. IF IT DOES OCCUR, IT SHOULD BE PATCHY IN COVERAGE BEFORE
BURNING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 20/06Z TAF PERIOD, AS SKC
WILL PREVAIL. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-12KTS OVERNIGHT, WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, AND INCREASE
FURTHER TO 12-16KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 52 65 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 41 61 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 46 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 64 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 49 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
AVIATION...15
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