439
FXUS64 KSHV 201126
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TODAY WILL SEE THE LONG-EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WHICH
WILL INITIATE THE PROCESS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, RESULTING IN A
RETURN TO SEASONABLE AND EVEN DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS WEDNESDAY DAWNS, THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL REORGANIZE ITSELF AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, WHILE A LARGE AREA OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES NUDGES OUT
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND TOWARDS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL TILT THE
PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO A NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTATION, OPENING THE PROVERBIAL FLOODGATES. ON STIFF NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, COOL AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE FOUR
STATE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERHEAD WHILE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ONLY INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION, RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FIRST OF WHAT MIGHT BE CALLED THE
"CHILLY TRIFECTA," WHEREIN TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE 30S TO LOWER
40S BY DAYBREAK. DEQUEEN AND NEIGHBORING SITES IN SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF THE FREEZING MARK. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF TODAY, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAILING, WHILE HIGHS CLIMB TO AN EVEN DISTRIBUTION IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.
SP
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OUTLINED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AMPLIFIES FURTHER,
JOINING FORCES WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPENING LOW TO
ENHANCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES CLOSER TO
NORTHERLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE ROUNDS 2 AND 3 OF THE SO-CALLED
"CHILLY TRIFECTA," THOUGH WHICH MORNING IS THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MAY VARY FROM ONE SITE TO ANOTHER. OVERALL, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WILL CONTINUE, WITH A FEW MORE SOUTH ARKANSAS
SITES COMING WITHIN A DEGREE OF TWO OF FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN AND ULTIMATELY
FLATTEN OUT, WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING WHILE THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE PREVIOUS REGIME MAKES WAY FOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, QUICKLY
BUMPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND EVEN 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S. THE NEXT - AND STILL RELATIVELY LOWER END - CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO RETURN FIRST TO THE EASTERN ZONES OF THE ARKLATEX BEFORE
SPREADING AREAWIDE NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, FUELED BY MOISTURE
RETURNS ON THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
SP
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
WITH MOSTLY SKC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT. BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE AROUND 21/00Z, DROPPING OFF TO AROUND
5 KTS OR LESS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AIRSPACE FROM
THE WEST.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 42 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 66 39 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 62 33 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 65 38 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 65 37 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 65 40 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 65 38 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 67 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page