662
FGUS74 KSHV 191539
ESFSHV
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
939 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
...NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR THE SABINE RIVER NEAR MINEOLA
TEXAS, THE FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE
SABINE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 16.9 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID FOR DECEMBER 19, 2024 THROUGH MARCH 18, 2025
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LAKE FORK CREEK
QUITMAN 4S 16 4.3 5.9 7.6 8.1 10.3 13.8 15.2 16.2 17.8
SABINE RIVER
MINEOLA 4S 14 10.3 15.0 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.6
GLADEWATER 3WSW 26 11.1 15.2 19.0 21.1 23.9 28.1 30.4 33.0 35.3
LONGVIEW 25 12.2 16.2 17.6 19.4 22.8 24.5 26.9 29.9 31.9
BECKVILLE 8NE 26 14.4 18.8 20.4 22.8 25.6 27.2 27.7 28.2 29.4
LOGANSPORT 28 22.2 22.5 23.2 24.2 25.4 26.9 28.4 29.6 30.0
BIG SANDY CREEK
BIG SANDY 4NE 17 8.4 10.4 11.4 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.6 14.9 15.7
RABBIT CREEK
KILGORE 10 10.7 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.4
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
LK CHEROKEE 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.6 280.7 280.8 281.1 281.2 281.5
LK MARTIN 306.0 306.2 306.3 306.4 306.5 306.7 306.8 307.2 307.6
LK MURVAUL 265.6 266.0 266.3 266.7 267.1 267.2 267.5 267.6 268.3
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK USES PROBABILITIES
COMPUTED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT THIS URL: HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/WFO/SHV (INTERNET
ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DURING THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
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