953
FXUS64 KSHV 141750
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1150 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS
MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO RECOVER AFTER A COLD
START IN THE 20'S AND 30'S. SURFACE WINDS HAVE TRENDED MORE OF A
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID MORNING, AND AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RESPONDED. AS A RESULT, ELECTED
TO RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO THE MORNING PACKAGE. ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WHERE SNOW PACK REMAINS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE, KEEPING OBS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT
NUDGE UP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.
KNAPP
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
DRY AND NEAR-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE AREA THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT IN THE PROCESS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
ZONAL FLOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
TOMORROW INTO THE EVENING, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS
WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL IN THE 50S/UPPER 30S RESPECTIVELY. /16/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE. TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL EXIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE ON FRIDAY TO
DELIVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVING ON SATURDAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
(1040+ MB INTENSITY) WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
(PROBABILITIES NEAR OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT BY NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT).
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MUCH HIGHER ON ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE AREA BY THEN AT THIS TIME. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 15/18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT TO BECOME NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, LOW VFR CEILINGS TO OVERSPREAD MAINLY THE LFK TERMINAL
SITE OVERNIGHT. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 36 57 35 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 56 34 56 33 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 49 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 54 32 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 55 29 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 59 37 57 36 / 0 0 10 10
GGG 57 35 57 34 / 0 0 10 10
LFK 60 42 56 36 / 0 0 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05
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