317
FXUS64 KSHV 150224
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
824 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AHEAD
OF A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND BREAKDOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING, THOUGH INFLUENCE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
PREVAIL CALMER WINDS OVERNIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, MORNING LOWS MAY
NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THIS MORNING, CITING ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
PRESENT. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL REFLECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50'S.
A COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING, BEFORE DIFFUSING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW,
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I-30 AND I-20 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A WEAK
SIGNAL IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS THAT THE DIFFUSED BOUNDARY MAY
SUPPORT JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE SHV CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE LONG TERM PATTERN, WHILE STARTING DRY, INTRODUCES A QUICK
WEATHER FEATURE LINKED TO THE GRADUAL WARMUP LEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROUGH EJECTION OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
IN RETURN WILL DRAG A ROBUST SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON HINTS TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION, BUT FORCING WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
CONFIDENCE GREATEST FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND EAST.
POPS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS RETURNS WITH A PRONOUNCED
SIGNAL FROM THE GEFS AND EPS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT 850MB. AS A
RESULT, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW CALLING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
START NEXT WEEK IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20'S. THIS AIRMASS, IF IT
VERIFIES, WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. AS A
RESULT, THIS WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERARTURES IN THE FAR
LONG TERM, WHILE ALSO INFLUENCING PRECIP TYPES LINKED TO LOW
PRESSURE SIGNALS ALONG OR NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES.
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING (32 DEG F), THIS WOULD IN SOME DEGREE
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LOCAL WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH PRESENT
MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ALONG
WITH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, HAS INTRODUCED A SIGNAL FOR THE RETURN OF
WINTER PRECIP LOCALLY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES VERSUS WINTER
PRECIPITATION ODDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE SIGNAL PRESENTED THIS
AFTERNOON WAS STRONG ENOUGH THAT INTRODUCING VERY LOW END POPS
WAS WARRANTED. FOR NOW, THE KEY MESSAGE TO TAKE FROM THIS IS TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE
STILL REMAIN DAYS OUT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
FOR THE 15/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT
KLFK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE MOMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 33 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 32 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 25 52 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 33 56 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 28 55 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 35 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 33 58 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 41 58 35 62 / 0 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20
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