091
FXUS64 KSHV 150532
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1132 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THAT, LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AT THIS TIME MOST OF IT
ISN'T REACHING THE GROUND, BUT THERE ARE A FEW OBS NORTH OF
HOUSTON REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. THE UPPER AIR SHOULD MOIST UP
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. /20/
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
FAIR SKIES WORKING IN OVER OUR I-30 CORRIDOR AS MUCH OF THIS
CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD BY SUNRISE. IT'S
ALREADY 31 DEGREES AT DEQUEEN AND AROUND FREEZING ACROSS S AR AT
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO FOR THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR. MOST
LOCATIONS AT 9PM ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AS WINDS ARE SLACKING
TO NEAR CALM, BUT A FEW SE STICKS AND ODDLY A COUPLE NE ON THE
FRINGE IN IDABEL AND LUFKIN. GENERALLY WE ARE LOOKING FOR POCKETS
OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 20S AND LOTS OF LOW
TO MID 30S WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. EXPECT MORE FROSTY
WINDSHIELDS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE LOOK TO ENJOY A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK. THEN, GET READY FOR
MORE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY AS WE TAKE THE POLAR PLUNGE
ONCE AGAIN WITH A BIG 1040+MB AIR MASS SETTLING DOWN ALONG I-20,
PINNING MOISTURE DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH POTENTIALLY MORE
WINTRY PRECIP FOR US BY EARLY TUESDAY. /24/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE LONG TERM PATTERN, WHILE STARTING DRY, INTRODUCES A QUICK
WEATHER FEATURE LINKED TO THE GRADUAL WARMUP LEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROUGH EJECTION OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
IN RETURN WILL DRAG A ROBUST SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE THIS
AFTERNOON HINTS TOWARDS SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION, BUT FORCING WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
CONFIDENCE GREATEST FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND EAST.
POPS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS RETURNS WITH A PRONOUNCED
SIGNAL FROM THE GEFS AND EPS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND AT 850MB. AS A
RESULT, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW CALLING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
START NEXT WEEK IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20'S. THIS AIRMASS, IF IT
VERIFIES, WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON. AS A
RESULT, THIS WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERARTURES IN THE FAR
LONG TERM, WHILE ALSO INFLUENCING PRECIP TYPES LINKED TO LOW
PRESSURE SIGNALS ALONG OR NEAR THE GULF COAST STATES.
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING (32 DEG F), THIS WOULD IN SOME DEGREE
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LOCAL WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH PRESENT
MOISTURE. OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ALONG
WITH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, HAS INTRODUCED A SIGNAL FOR THE RETURN OF
WINTER PRECIP LOCALLY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES VERSUS WINTER
PRECIPITATION ODDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE SIGNAL PRESENTED THIS
AFTERNOON WAS STRONG ENOUGH THAT INTRODUCING VERY LOW END POPS
WAS WARRANTED. FOR NOW, THE KEY MESSAGE TO TAKE FROM THIS IS TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE
STILL REMAIN DAYS OUT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME PERIOD OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
FOR THE 15/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 15Z AT KLFK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 6 KTS DURING THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 33 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 32 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 25 52 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 33 56 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 28 55 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 35 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 33 58 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 41 58 35 62 / 20 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20
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