969
FXUS64 KSHV 152325
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND COLD FOR ANOTHER NIGHT BEFORE A
BRIEF WARMING TREND PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE AXIS NW OF THE ZONES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH SLIDING
SW OF THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA WILL HELP TO DRIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE NE ACROSS MEXICO
AND TEXAS, HELPING TO ENHANCE CLOUD COVERAGE LOCALLY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TOMORROW EVENING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED, JUST SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WARMER LOWS WILL BE PRESENT AS WE TRADE IN THE
LOW AND MID 30'S FOR THE UPPER 30'S TO JUST ABOVE 40 DEG F.
WESTERLY, TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, WILL
HELP TO ADVECT A SOMEWHAT WARMER AIRMASS IN LOCALLY, WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE
REGION MID TO LATE FRIDAY.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL DRIFT
INLAND, BECOMING ABSORBED SOME ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY AM.
AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND MOVE EASTWARD, DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FOUR STATE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON,
EARLY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON ADVERTISES A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND FAST MOVING FRONTAL FEATURE SO BY THE TIME
PARAMETERS LINE UP ENOUGH FOR ANY INITIATION, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, WITH LIMITED
THUNDER POTENTIAL DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION LOCALLY. AS A RESULT, ONLY CALLING FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER EXPECTED. THIS FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY AM.
NOW THAT THE FIRST WEATHER MAKER OF THE LONG TERM IS BEHIND US, IT
IS WHAT IS FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT NOT ONLY
HAS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BUT IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE OVERLOOKED AS PRECIP AND
PTYPE PROBABILITIES WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE LATER IN THE PACKAGE.
BEHIND THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AM COLD FRONT WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION
TO WHAT WILL BECOME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON.
THOUGH IT'S INFLUENCE MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY NOTICEABLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ONCE WE HIT SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL AS SUNDAY
MORNING LOWS LAND IN THE 20'S. THIS WILL ONLY GET COLDER AS LOWS
WILL FALL EVEN FURTHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AM, TRENDING IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20'S. DURING THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WHICH KEEP IN MIND WILL CARRY
INFLUENCE INTO AFTERNOON HIGHS (MOSTLY 30'S), IT IS IMPORTANT TO
FOLLOW BEST PRACTICE FOR PROTECTING PIPES, PLANTS, PETS, AND
PEOPLE.
NOW AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE PRESENT,
YOU START TO INTRODUCE THE PROSPECTS OF WINTER PRECIP TO THE
FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING HERE THAT LOW CONFIDENCE AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BASED ON THE RESULT OF THE AFTERNOON GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT. GIVEN THE THEME
THIS AFTERNOON, ELECTED TO NOT DISTANCE FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY, BE SURE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS CHANGES EXPECTED THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
FOR THE 16/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CEILINGS AT KMLU AND KLFK WILL CLEAR OUT
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, LEAVING ALL SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE
DECREASING TO AROUND 3 KTS DURING THE DAY. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 33 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 32 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 25 58 29 57 / 0 0 0 20
TXK 32 62 38 60 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 31 61 34 60 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 32 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 32 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 34 62 38 64 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...57
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