851
FXUS64 KSHV 161731
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SW OF
THE SHV CWA THIS MORNING. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS HAS
HELPED TO PREVAIL WESTERLY WINDS LOCALLY, THAT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES
GRADUALLY SE. AT THE SAME TIME, ENERGY AND HIGHER RH WITHIN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SUPPORT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD NOT DO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SLOWING DOWN THE QUICK WARMING TREND PRESENT ACROSS LOCAL
ASOS/AWOS SITES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ADJUSTMENT NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.
KNAPP
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE-WISE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS
TRANSITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALL OF THE SNOWPACK DID, IN FACT, NOT MELT AWAY
NORTH OF I-30 - BUT HIGHS UP THERE AROUND 60 TODAY SHOULD LIKELY
ACCOMPLISH THE ERADICATION OF THE FROZEN STUFF. ELSEWHERE,
ANTICIPATE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S AFTER A SEASONABLY
CHILLY START TO THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
FREEZING IN NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS AND BUILDING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A SHARPENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OTHER SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO GET SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
GOING IN THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
THE LOW-ISH POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS, THE MODIFYING AIR MASS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF HIGHS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL - RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID
60S SOUTH. /50/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
THERE REMAINS SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WE WILL GET TO THAT BELOW, BUT
FIRST THERE IS THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DISCUSS.
THIS FRONT SHOULD START ENTERING INTO AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN PLOWING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION, SHOULD BEGIN
TO AGGREGATE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY COMPLETELY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF
OUR COVERAGE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD NE LA BEFORE ACTIVITY CLEARS,
BUT INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY
LOW. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NW
AS THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE EAST FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY, BUT THE
GUSTY WINDS AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL
START TO IMPART A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 60S TOWARD
CENTRAL LA.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY INFILTRATE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN ZONES TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THIS
PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE CHILLY
TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY, HELPING TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A
RANGE OF NEAR 30 NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH.
NOW WE GET TO THE WINTER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL STARTING MONDAY
NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THE BROAD SPECTRUM OF NWP GUIDANCE HAS NOT
BUILT AS MUCH TOWARD A CONSENSUS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS US METEOROLOGISTS WOULD LIKE. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALOFT BEING
BROUGHT INTO THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLY INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE EUROPEAN, CANADIAN, AND ESPECIALLY AMERICAN
MODELING SYSTEMS ARE DELAYING THIS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY, WHICH
WOULD TEND TO LIMIT (BUT NOT ERASE) THE OVERALL WINTER WEATHER
THREAT IN OUR AREA. THAT SAID, THE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM EACH
MODELING SYSTEM STILL SHOW DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFALL
ACROSS AT LEAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING HAS NOT
BEEN CLARIFIED MUCH BETTER. LONG STORY SHORT, THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN THAT GENERAL TIME PERIOD WHEN TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY SNOW PRECIP TYPE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET INCREASING DUE TO MENTIONED MODELING SYSTEM
UNCERTAINTIES. LOW TEMERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FRIGID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S
SOUTH WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE FREEZING.
UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS VERY HIGH FOR MID TO LATE PORTION
OF NEXT WORK WEEK. SOME WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL COULD STILL
MATERIALIZE AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING
OF THE POTENTIALLY LAGGING SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY AND
WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH DURING THAT TIME
FRAME - BECAUSE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE PEAK COLD WITH
EITHER SLOW OR FAST MODIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
GFS MODEL EVEN CAME IN WITH A PREVIOUSLY FRINGE SOLUTION OF
SHOWERS, STORMS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO QUICK AIR MASS MODIFICATION. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IN THAT
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS EXTREMELY LOW AT PRESENT, GIVEN IT BUCKING
ANY LOOSE CONSENSUS GARNERED FROM THE OVERALL NWP GUIDANCE.
FOR NOW, WE WILL FOCUS WINTER WEATHER MESSAGING ON THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, AS CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW
AFTER THAT TIME PERIOD...AND IS STILL LOWER THAN WE WOULD LIKE IN
THE THAT TIME PERIOD ITSELF. OUR OFFICIAL GRIDS HAVE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH SOUTH OF I-20 IN THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS
FOR MORE SNOW THAN THIS AND WE WILL DO OUR BEST TO CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE THIS POTENTIAL PROBABILISTICALLY WITH TAILORED GRAPHICS.
/50/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WINDS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, APPROACHING 15 KNOTS ACROSS
TYR AFTER 18/15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 39 63 50 / 0 0 10 10
MLU 63 36 62 53 / 0 0 10 30
DEQ 60 30 58 38 / 0 0 20 10
TXK 62 37 62 46 / 0 0 10 10
ELD 63 34 61 47 / 0 0 10 20
TYR 62 40 64 45 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 63 37 63 45 / 0 0 10 0
LFK 63 37 65 47 / 0 0 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...05
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