582  
FXUS64 KSHV 162103  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
303 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE  
EVENING. GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL FOLLOW, A THEME THAT WILL  
CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS  
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES WEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH  
CLOUD COVERAGE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PREVAILING WAA, LOWS  
WILL BE A FEW TICKS WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS THIS  
WEEK.  
 
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES WILL HELP TO ADVECT MARGINAL GULF  
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. EARLY AFTERNOON FORCING AND ENERGY ALOFT MAY  
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.  
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE GREATEST POPS BEING  
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-49, ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LA AND SOUTH  
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH WEAK  
INSTABILITY PRESENT, FRONTAL TIMING AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION, SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED  
THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST THIS WAVE BRINGS LOCALLY.  
BY SUNRISE, THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CLEARED OF THE  
FA, WITH STRONG CAA FILLING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. GIVEN  
THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE ONSET OF THE AIRMASS INFLUENCE,  
THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH TO TANK TEMPERATURES TO THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL  
BY SATURDAY AM. THAT BEING SAID, THE AIRMASS ARRIVAL SHOULD BE  
POTENT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON WARMING TO ONLY THE MID 50'S.  
 
KNAPP  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET SATURDAY  
NIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE AIRMASS  
SOUTHWARD, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 20'S AREAWIDE, WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF A FEW UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MCCURTAIN. FROM  
THERE, IT WILL ONLY GET COLDER AS AIRMASS INFLUENCE WILL ONLY ALLOW  
FOR SUNDAY HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 30'S AND 40'S BEFORE OVERNIGHT  
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20'S.  
 
BUYING THAT PRESENT THINKING CONTINUES, SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL  
LIKELY PRESENT THE COLDEST AREAWIDE PRESENTATION OF TEMPERATURES  
THIS SEASON. AT THE SAME TIME, AS MANY HEAD OUT THE DOOR FOR THE MORNING  
COMMUTE, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS  
AREAWIDE, WITH POCKETS OF SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS GREATEST DURING THE EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THAT BEING SAID, BY THE WEEKEND FORECAST  
PACKAGES, THE ISSUANCE OF COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PACKAGES, FOLLOWING BEST  
PRACTICE FOR PROTECTING PETS, PLANTS, PIPES AND PEOPLE IS STRONGLY  
ENCOURAGED.  
 
IN TERMS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER HAS NOT  
SHIFTED MUCH. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO  
PIECE TOGETHER AN ARRAY OF IDEAS, WHICH NOW EVEN INCLUDE VARYING  
DEGREES OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO THE EQUATION. THIS WOULD PLAY  
INTO P-TYPE, IF ANY, WERE TO EVOLVE LOCALLY. FOR NOW, SOMETHING  
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE DISPLACEMENT OF LOCAL DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE AS UPPER FORCING SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANIED DRY AIR COULD BE JUST  
RIGHT THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN GULF WOULD RESTRICT FURTHER NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE  
SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE COLUMN. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS  
CAMP HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND DRY AIR, WHILE  
THE ECMWF IS A TICK SLOWER, BUT STILL FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE  
STRONG AND DRY SURFACE RIDGE TO SUPPRESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE  
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ZONES. HOW TRENDS SUCH AS THIS EVOLVE OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HELP IN DETERMINING HOW THE WINTER PRECIP  
PROSPECTS EARLY IN THE WEEK EVOLVE. FOR NOW, LOW CONFIDENCE  
CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY. WHILE A SECOND SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO  
EMERGE ON DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM, IT IS  
STILL TOO EARLY TO GO INTO ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.  
 
KNAPP  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN ON  
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WINDS TO INCREASE TO  
AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, APPROACHING 15 KNOTS ACROSS  
TYR AFTER 18/15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH  
THE FORECAST PERIOD. /05/  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 37 62 48 56 / 0 10 0 0  
MLU 35 61 52 62 / 0 10 20 0  
DEQ 33 58 38 49 / 0 20 10 0  
TXK 37 60 44 54 / 0 20 10 0  
ELD 33 60 46 57 / 0 10 10 0  
TYR 40 63 43 53 / 0 10 0 0  
GGG 38 62 43 55 / 0 10 0 0  
LFK 40 64 46 58 / 0 10 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...53  
LONG TERM....53  
AVIATION...05  
 
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