745
FXUS64 KSHV 170501
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1101 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
NO MAJOR WHOLESALE UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH CALMING WINDS, THUS
INCORPORATED THE LATEST CONSSHORT GUIDANCE NUDGING LOWS DOWN BY
1-2 DEGREES, AIMING TO DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE,
INGESTED THE MOST RECENT SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPOLATED THROUGH TO 12Z.
SP
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING. GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN WILL FOLLOW, A THEME THAT WILL
CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES WEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PREVAILING WAA, LOWS
WILL BE A FEW TICKS WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS THIS
WEEK.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES WILL HELP TO ADVECT MARGINAL GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. EARLY AFTERNOON FORCING AND ENERGY ALOFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE GREATEST POPS BEING
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-49, ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT, FRONTAL TIMING AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION, SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST THIS WAVE BRINGS LOCALLY.
BY SUNRISE, THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CLEARED OF THE
FA, WITH STRONG CAA FILLING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. GIVEN
THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE ONSET OF THE AIRMASS INFLUENCE,
THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH TO TANK TEMPERATURES TO THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL
BY SATURDAY AM. THAT BEING SAID, THE AIRMASS ARRIVAL SHOULD BE
POTENT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON WARMING TO ONLY THE MID 50'S.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 20'S AREAWIDE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MCCURTAIN. FROM
THERE, IT WILL ONLY GET COLDER AS AIRMASS INFLUENCE WILL ONLY ALLOW
FOR SUNDAY HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 30'S AND 40'S BEFORE OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20'S.
BUYING THAT PRESENT THINKING CONTINUES, SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY PRESENT THE COLDEST AREAWIDE PRESENTATION OF TEMPERATURES
THIS SEASON. AT THE SAME TIME, AS MANY HEAD OUT THE DOOR FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS
AREAWIDE, WITH POCKETS OF SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS GREATEST DURING THE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THAT BEING SAID, BY THE WEEKEND FORECAST
PACKAGES, THE ISSUANCE OF COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS PACKAGES, FOLLOWING BEST
PRACTICE FOR PROTECTING PETS, PLANTS, PIPES AND PEOPLE IS STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED.
IN TERMS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER HAS NOT
SHIFTED MUCH. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
PIECE TOGETHER AN ARRAY OF IDEAS, WHICH NOW EVEN INCLUDE VARYING
DEGREES OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO THE EQUATION. THIS WOULD PLAY
INTO P-TYPE, IF ANY, WERE TO EVOLVE LOCALLY. FOR NOW, SOMETHING
WORTH MONITORING WILL BE THE DISPLACEMENT OF LOCAL DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS UPPER FORCING SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANIED DRY AIR COULD BE JUST
RIGHT THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WOULD RESTRICT FURTHER NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THE
SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE COLUMN. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GFS
CAMP HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND DRY AIR, WHILE
THE ECMWF IS A TICK SLOWER, BUT STILL FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
STRONG AND DRY SURFACE RIDGE TO SUPPRESS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ZONES. HOW TRENDS SUCH AS THIS EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HELP IN DETERMINING HOW THE WINTER PRECIP
PROSPECTS EARLY IN THE WEEK EVOLVE. FOR NOW, LOW CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY. WHILE A SECOND SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO
EMERGE ON DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM, IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO GO INTO ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER FOR ALL SITES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
REMAINING LOW-END VFR FOR MOST AREAS. AT THIS TIME, KSHV AND KLFK
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHER SITES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS LIST IN THE NEXT
TAF PACKAGE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FOR SEVERAL
SITES OVERNIGHT TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 37 62 48 56 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 35 61 52 62 / 0 10 20 0
DEQ 31 58 38 49 / 0 20 10 0
TXK 38 60 44 54 / 0 20 10 0
ELD 34 60 46 57 / 0 10 10 0
TYR 40 63 43 53 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 37 62 43 55 / 0 10 0 0
LFK 37 64 46 58 / 0 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...57
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