032
FXUS64 KSHV 171200
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
FAIR SKIES MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF FROST WITH AN
AVERAGE OF MIDDLE 30S. IT IS 28 IN DEQUEEN AND NACOGDOCHES. AND
IT IS 30 AT MARSHALL AND CENTER, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWN I-20
WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST SITES ARE SHELTERED OR
STILL CALM WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AT SEVERAL OF THE WARMER
SITES. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHIELD OF CIRRUS
ARRIVING OVER TYLER AND LONGVIEW, DOWN INTO TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND.
THE HRRR AND THE GFS KEEP QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CROPPING UP BY MID AFTERNOON INTO OUR I-30 CORRIDOR. THE
ECMWF BEGINS A LITTLE SOONER AROUND LUNCHTIME OF THE SAME AREA ON
A GRANDER SCALE OF QPF, BUT STILL JUST SHOWERS. THE S/SW WINDS
WILL GET A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOME. ALL
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE AN OPEN SHORT WAVE ALOFT BUCKLING THE
ZONAL FLOW TO SW WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW RIDING DOWN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS FINALLY SHOWING
SOME QPF AFTER SUNSET FOR OUR TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF E TX/W LA AND
REALLY INITIATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH A DAYS WORTH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO OUR CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG TOWARD DAYBREAK,
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MAYBE
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN PARISHES FROM
MONROE TO ALEXANDRIA. THE WINDS WILL BE TO SHIFT TO NW BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS OUR I-30 CORRIDOR. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING AND RACING
DOWN I-20. THE CHANCE FOR ANY FURTHER RAINFALL WILL PUSH EASTWARD
WITH THE LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WPC DOESN'T REALLY HAVE MUCH FOR
US AND THE SPC WILL BE WATCHING FURTHER EAST WITH MORE MOISTURE.
THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING FOR I-30 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S DOWN I-49. THE
WARM FRONT WILL SET UP THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE THE CHILL DOWN AS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL VARY ACROSS THE FRONT AS SKIES CLEAR. SOME
RECOVERY WILL BE SEEN, BUT NOT FELT WITH THE WIND CHILL SWEEPING
DOWN ON GUSTY NW WINDS. /24/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
IT WILL BE A MOSTLY COLD WEEKEND AND GETTING COLDER WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE POURING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS A COUPLE OF
1040 CORES DROP IN SUCCESSION. THE FIRST PIECE WILL BREAK OFF AT
1037MB OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH A
LITTLE QPF DRYING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE IF
ANYTHING FOR US. SKIES WILL VARY WITH TOO MUCH WIND AND DRY AIR
FOR FROST, BUT AIR TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN OUR FAR
NORTH AND NEAR FREEZING NEAR ALEXANDRIA, PLUS STILL SOME HEFTY
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND LOW TO MID 20S.
THE NEXT PIECE OF THE 1045MB CORE WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND HEADING DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE
MLK HOLIDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 30S, SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. VERY COLD TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
DAYBREAK WITH MID TEENS NORTH TO LOW 20S SOUTH WITH TEEN WIND
CHILLS AREA WIDE. LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND STILL SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AS THIS SECONDARY AIR MASS DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ALLOWING POOLING MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN GULF TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL BEND OVER THE ARCTIC CHILL.
THE WPC WINTER WX TAB HAS 10-30% ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR A
QUARTER INCH MELT, SO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW, BUT HOW MUCH LAYS
DOWN SOUTH OF I-20 REMAINS LIGHTER ON THE FRINGE OF THIS
PROBABILITY. DAY 5 KEEPS LOCKED IN OVER SE TX AND S LA, BUT STILL
A FRINGE RUNNING RIGHT ALONG I-20. SO ALMOST THE SECOND ANNUAL
HOLIDAY SNOWFALL, BUT THAT COULD BE EXTENDED FOR SOME. THE SNOW
WILL BE DRIER FOR US AND SHOULD BE MORE DRIVABLE, BUT THE ENSUING
SLUSH FROM TRAFFIC AND WARM TIRES WILL MAKE SLICK SPOT MAYBE ON
SOME ROADS, BUT ESPECIALLY ELEVATED ROAD DECKS. MORE DETAILS AS WE
MOVE FROM MEDIUM TO SHORT RANGE AS THE LA NINA DOES IT'S WINTER
JOB FOR THE DEEP SOUTH. AFTER ANOTHER FRIGID MID TEEN TO LOW 20
START, HIGHS DURING MIDWEEK WILL MODERATE INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE
LOW 50S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE WARMING, BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING
FOR END OF THE WEEK AND ABOVE FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
FOR THE 17/12Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BUT, IT SHOULD BE VFR CIGS, AS
CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND TXK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS COULD
GUST UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 47 57 29 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 61 51 62 31 / 10 30 0 0
DEQ 59 38 49 21 / 30 10 0 0
TXK 60 43 53 26 / 30 10 0 0
ELD 59 44 57 25 / 20 10 0 0
TYR 64 42 52 26 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 63 43 55 26 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 64 46 58 29 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20
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