156  
FXUS64 KSHV 171746  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1146 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 927 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE PREVAILING  
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ADVECT MOISTURE  
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL  
LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST  
TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING  
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT  
THIS TIME WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED. /05/  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
FAIR SKIES MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF FROST WITH AN  
AVERAGE OF MIDDLE 30S. IT IS 28 IN DEQUEEN AND NACOGDOCHES. AND  
IT IS 30 AT MARSHALL AND CENTER, BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DOWN I-20  
WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST SITES ARE SHELTERED OR  
STILL CALM WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AT SEVERAL OF THE WARMER  
SITES. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHIELD OF CIRRUS  
ARRIVING OVER TYLER AND LONGVIEW, DOWN INTO TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.  
LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND.  
 
THE HRRR AND THE GFS KEEP QUIET MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME LIGHT  
SHOWERS CROPPING UP BY MID AFTERNOON INTO OUR I-30 CORRIDOR. THE  
ECMWF BEGINS A LITTLE SOONER AROUND LUNCHTIME OF THE SAME AREA ON  
A GRANDER SCALE OF QPF, BUT STILL JUST SHOWERS. THE S/SW WINDS  
WILL GET A LITTLE BREEZY TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RAMPS UP AHEAD OF  
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOME. ALL  
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE AN OPEN SHORT WAVE ALOFT BUCKLING THE  
ZONAL FLOW TO SW WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW RIDING DOWN THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS FINALLY SHOWING  
SOME QPF AFTER SUNSET FOR OUR TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF E TX/W LA AND  
REALLY INITIATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH A DAYS WORTH OF  
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS THE WARM FRONT  
LIFTS INTO OUR CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG TOWARD DAYBREAK,  
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MAYBE  
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN PARISHES FROM  
MONROE TO ALEXANDRIA. THE WINDS WILL BE TO SHIFT TO NW BY THIS  
TIME TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS OUR I-30 CORRIDOR. THE SURFACE LOW  
WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING AND RACING  
DOWN I-20. THE CHANCE FOR ANY FURTHER RAINFALL WILL PUSH EASTWARD  
WITH THE LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WPC DOESN'T REALLY HAVE MUCH FOR  
US AND THE SPC WILL BE WATCHING FURTHER EAST WITH MORE MOISTURE.  
THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN  
THE MORNING FOR I-30 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S DOWN I-49. THE  
WARM FRONT WILL SET UP THE REGION BRIEFLY BEFORE THE CHILL DOWN AS  
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL VARY ACROSS THE FRONT AS SKIES CLEAR. SOME  
RECOVERY WILL BE SEEN, BUT NOT FELT WITH THE WIND CHILL SWEEPING  
DOWN ON GUSTY NW WINDS. /24/  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
IT WILL BE A MOSTLY COLD WEEKEND AND GETTING COLDER WITH ARCTIC  
HIGH PRESSURE POURING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS A COUPLE OF  
1040 CORES DROP IN SUCCESSION. THE FIRST PIECE WILL BREAK OFF AT  
1037MB OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WITH A  
LITTLE QPF DRYING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE IF  
ANYTHING FOR US. SKIES WILL VARY WITH TOO MUCH WIND AND DRY AIR  
FOR FROST, BUT AIR TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN OUR FAR  
NORTH AND NEAR FREEZING NEAR ALEXANDRIA, PLUS STILL SOME HEFTY  
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND LOW TO MID 20S.  
 
THE NEXT PIECE OF THE 1045MB CORE WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE  
DAKOTAS AND HEADING DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE  
MLK HOLIDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 30S, SOME 20  
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. VERY COLD TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY  
DAYBREAK WITH MID TEENS NORTH TO LOW 20S SOUTH WITH TEEN WIND  
CHILLS AREA WIDE. LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND STILL SNOW SHOWERS  
DEVELOPING AS THIS SECONDARY AIR MASS DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY  
ALLOWING POOLING MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN GULF TO LIFT NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL BEND OVER THE ARCTIC CHILL.  
 
THE WPC WINTER WX TAB HAS 10-30% ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR A  
QUARTER INCH MELT, SO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW, BUT HOW MUCH LAYS  
DOWN SOUTH OF I-20 REMAINS LIGHTER ON THE FRINGE OF THIS  
PROBABILITY. DAY 5 KEEPS LOCKED IN OVER SE TX AND S LA, BUT STILL  
A FRINGE RUNNING RIGHT ALONG I-20. SO ALMOST THE SECOND ANNUAL  
HOLIDAY SNOWFALL, BUT THAT COULD BE EXTENDED FOR SOME. THE SNOW  
WILL BE DRIER FOR US AND SHOULD BE MORE DRIVABLE, BUT THE ENSUING  
SLUSH FROM TRAFFIC AND WARM TIRES WILL MAKE SLICK SPOT MAYBE ON  
SOME ROADS, BUT ESPECIALLY ELEVATED ROAD DECKS. MORE DETAILS AS WE  
MOVE FROM MEDIUM TO SHORT RANGE AS THE LA NINA DOES IT'S WINTER  
JOB FOR THE DEEP SOUTH. AFTER ANOTHER FRIGID MID TEEN TO LOW 20  
START, HIGHS DURING MIDWEEK WILL MODERATE INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE  
LOW 50S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE WARMING, BUT STILL BELOW FREEZING  
FOR END OF THE WEEK AND ABOVE FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND. /24/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
AIRSPACE WIDE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LAYER OF BKN/OVC TRAVERSES  
FROM WEST TO EAST. BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND FL100 AND UP SO  
WHILE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ARE PRESENT ON RADAR, THE ODDS OF  
ACCUMULATING RA/SHRA REACHING THE SURFACE OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS  
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT, ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON  
MENTIONING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME GIVEN LATEST HI-RES DEPICTIONS.  
SHRA MAY EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF MLU THIS EVENING, GENERALLY EAST  
OF THE TERMINAL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE  
AIRSPACE WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT, A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF CLEARING MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS DRY AIR  
ENTRAINS WITHIN THE CORE OF THE PASSING SURFACE LOW. THAT BEING  
SAID, WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH  
THROUGH DAYBREAK AND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE ON  
CLOUD HEIGHTS REMAINS LOW GIVEN MIXED SOLUTIONS, BUT THIS SHOULD  
IRON OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
KNAPP  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 47 57 29 41 / 10 0 0 0  
MLU 51 62 31 41 / 30 0 0 0  
DEQ 38 49 21 35 / 10 0 0 0  
TXK 43 53 26 39 / 10 0 0 0  
ELD 44 57 25 39 / 10 0 0 0  
TYR 42 52 26 39 / 0 0 0 0  
GGG 43 55 26 40 / 0 0 0 0  
LFK 46 58 29 42 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....24  
AVIATION...53  
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