675
FXUS64 KSHV 172350
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
550 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG WITH A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH LOUISIANA.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, COULD
SEE WIND CHILL VALUES PLUMMET TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS, WHICH COULD WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TRANSLATE EAST. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S, PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX. WITH ONLY A FEW HOURS OF EXPOSURE TO ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, THAWING OF EXPOSED ITEMS MAY BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT PETS, PLANTS, AND
PIPES.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ARKLATEX BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PRODUCES WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF THE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. LATEST MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS, POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH LINGERING IMPACTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE SNOWPACK WILL BE
SLOW TO THAW.
OTHERWISE, SOME OF THE LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER-LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS TEXAS. IMPACTS AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STEADY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY TOMORROW WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
CEILING HEIGHTS THIS PERIOD. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHEN AND WHERE CEILINGS WILL INCREASE BACK TO
VFR HEIGHTS. AS OF NOW, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY
THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMLU. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER
CEILINGS. FURTHER CLARITY SHOULD COME WITH FUTURE UPDATES. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 47 56 29 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 63 31 41 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 38 49 21 35 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 44 54 26 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 57 25 39 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 42 52 26 39 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 43 54 25 40 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 46 58 29 42 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...57
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