703
FXUS64 KSHV 181044
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
444 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S ARRIVING ON THE FRONT OVER SE OK. TYLER IS GUSTY NW
THIS HOUR WITH 54 AND FALLING. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS I-20 AND DOWN I-49 BY LUNCH. RIGHT NOW, THE WARM
FRONT IS STILL WARMING SOME TEMPS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WITH
GUSTY SW WINDS LIFTING MID 50S INTO S AR ANDS EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN
OUR PARISHES. SKIES ARE GOING TO BE CLEARING OUT FOR THE MOST
PART, BUT SOME STRATOCU MAY PERSIST WITH A LARGE AREA FROM
MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH MOVING SE.
WE DID HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN HERE AND THERE LAST EVENING, BUT NOW
WITH WARMER AIR IS CONDENSING THE DAMPNESS ON THE GROUND AND IT
LOOK FRESH. THE DAMPNESS WILL DRY UP SUPER QUICKLY WITH THIS
FROPA AS THE WIND CHILLS BEGIN TO POUR INTO OUR FOUR-STATE AREA.
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW, WE WILL HAVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR WIND CHILLS AS OUR LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S MOST
EVERYWHERE. THESE WIND CHILLS WILL GET BACK ABOVE CRITERIA BY MID
MORNING WHICH IS GETTING INTO OUR 3RD 12HR PERIOD IN THE SHORT
TERM. THIS WILL FOCUS INITIALLY ON NE TX AND EASTWARD ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-30. MORE TO COME ON THAT LATER TODAY AS WE EDGE BACK UP
A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS, SOME OF WHICH WILL FALL SHORT
OF CURRENT READINGS.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME A FIXTURE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TO NEAR 40
WHICH IS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE
JANUARY. THE CORE OF THIS FIRST AIR MASS WILL BREAK OFF OF THE
FRONT RANGE AND SETTLE AT 1037MB OVER N TX BY LUNCH TIME. THE
1050MB FOLLOW UP AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND DROP, SCOURING LIMITED MOISTURE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
AND HEAD OUR WAY. /24/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THE SECONDARY AIR MASS WILL BE ANYTHING BUT, IT WILL BE MUCH
COLDER AND WILL BUCKLE THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO SW, AS THE SNOW
CLOUDS BEGIN TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE FIRST CORE AIR
MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE VIRGINIA'S AND SHOVE ALL THE GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE WESTWARD, WHICH WILL THEN BE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL BEND, INTO THE DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX, THIS BLEND IS WHAT HAS
BOLSTERED OUR SNOW EVENT LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE 06Z NAM ESPECIALLY AND THE 00Z GFS TO SOME EXTENT, LIFT THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD TO ALONG OUR I-30
CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE SET TO ACCUMULATE WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF 30S FOR HIGHS ON MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY. THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP ONSET WITH GROUND TEMPS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE WPC STILL HAS A 1/4 INCH
EQUIVALENT OF SNOW MELT DRAWN OVER DEEP EAST TX AND DOWN OUR I-20
CORRIDOR IN LA, WHICH EQUATES TO 1 TO 3 INCHES GIVE OR TAKE.
OVERALL, OUR POPS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED, JUST A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWARD. MOST OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF DURING MID TO LATE TUESDAY FROM NW TO SE. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW PERSON BUILDING ON FRONT LAWNS WILL STRETCH ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 WITH SOME BIG TIME TRAVEL ISSUES DOWN ALONG I-10
WHERE TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST, MAYBE A HALF OF FOOT AS THE SWATH
GOES OVER TOP OF THE COASTAL INVERTED TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD.
WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER AIR MASS ARRIVES, BUT MIXED WITH MORE OF A WARMER
MARITIME INFLUENCE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NW
STATES. A DEEPENING LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
THE ECMWF MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH NEEDED QPF FOR THE WEST COAST.
THE GFS IS DRIER AND FASTER, BUT AGREEMENT ON THIS BEING OUR NEXT
RAIN/SNOW MAKER WILL PAN OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES AT THIS POINT IN TIME, EXCEPT
FOR KTYR AND KGGG THAT REMAIN VFR. THE REGION WILL HAVE A PERIOD
OF HIGHER VFR CLOUDS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT BEGINNING
BY 18/09 FOR EASTERN SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 56 28 40 20 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 62 31 40 20 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 43 21 34 14 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 24 38 19 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 53 26 38 16 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 24 38 19 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 51 25 39 19 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 54 29 40 22 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...57
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