357
FXUS64 KSHV 190513
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THE MAJOR FEATURE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE JUST HOW COLD IT GETS ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX. INCORPORATED THE LATEST HIRES SHORT RANGE MODELS,
WHICH SUGGESTED LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES FORM EXISTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING SOUTH. REFLECTIVITY THIS PAST
HOUR HAS INDICATED POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED FLURRIES IN FAR
NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY, BUT INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
SHOULD LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY TO THE POINT OF PRODUCING NO
DISCERNIBLE IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, INGESTED THE MOST RECENT SEVERAL
HOURS WORTH OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS AND
INTERPOLATED THROUGH TO 12Z.
SP
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN FULL EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. AROUND AND SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL, WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION SEEING 20'S AND LOW 30'S OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES OF THE FA, WHERE LOWS JUST
BELOW 20 DEG F ARE LIKELY. AT THE SAME TIME, A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY N/NW WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 10-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25
MPH. THE COMBINATION OF THE AIRMASS ARRIVAL, AND GUSTY NORTHERLIES
IS THE PERFECT SETUP FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM. WIND CHILL VALUES AT OR
BELOW 10 DEG F ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THE I-30
CORRIDOR, WHILE WIND CHILL VALUES FURTHER SOUTH SIT BETWEEN 10-15
DEG F. AS A RESULT OF THIS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN REASON BEING THE WIND CHILL
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOUT 10-15 DEG F COOLER
FOR MANY (30'S AND LOW 40'S). THE FIRST FULL NIGHT OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS INVASIVE AIRMASS WILL COME SUN PM/MON AM AS LOWS
BY MONDAY AM WILL SIT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20'S.
WINDS BY THEN WILL HAVE SETTLED DOWN SOME, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO
SUGGEST WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 10-15 DEG F AREAWIDE. AGAIN,
EXPECT ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BUT WITH THE
FOCUS HERE BEING THE AIR TEMPERATURE ITSELF. IT IS LIKELY THIS
WILL BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK AS COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS
PREVAIL.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
BY LATE MONDAY AM, THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH OF THE FA WILL BE ONGOING AS TEMPERATURES ATTEMPT TO
REBOUND FROM THE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
GIVING SURFACE WINDS MORE OF AN NE/E APPEARANCE LOCALLY. AS THIS
IS ONGOING, A WAVE AXIS WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
THIS WILL BE THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR INTRODUCING WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SURROUNDING
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THAT BEING SAID, THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE.
A QUICKER SOLUTION WOULD SUPPRESS HOW FAR NORTH THE AFOREMENTIONED
GULF LOW AND MOISTURE WOULD MOVE, RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN THE
POSSIBLE WINTER PRECIP IMPACTS. FOR NOW, CONTINUING TO MESSAGE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND DOWN TO TOLEDO BEND WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES MAY
MATERIALIZE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS VALUE COULD
INCREASE WITH LATER UPDATES.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE
OF A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES OF
THE FA, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AGAIN, IF CONFIDENCE WERE TO INCREASE REGARDING
IMPACTS NORTH OF WHERE THE CURRENT WATCH IS LOCATED, THE WATCH
COULD BE EXPANDED. JUST BECAUSE A WATCH IS NOT IN PLACE ACROSS THE
I-20 PARISHES AND COUNTIES, DOES NOT THAT MEAN ACCUMULATING
WINTER PRECIP IS RULED OUT. FLURRIES TO LIGHT ACCUMULATION
COULD EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS THE LA/AR BORDER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GIVEN DETERMINISTIC TIMING DIFFERENCES, THE EXIT OF THE GULF LOW
MOISTURE AND ANY WINTER PRECIP, IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. TO
THAT POINT, GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON HAS LEANED MORE IN FAVOR OF
SNOW EXITING THE FA SOMETIME LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. BEYOND THE
PROSPECTS OF THE WINTER PRECIP IMPACTS, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD, WITH LOWS NOT
EXITING THE 20'S FOR MANY TILL NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO THE
ARRIVAL OF MULTIPLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS REINFORCING A
NORTHERN AIRMASS.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AROUND THE REGION AND WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KMLU AND KELD STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF RETURNING TO MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE
BEFORE ALSO CLEARING OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD, SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 27 39 22 38 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 29 41 20 36 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 20 35 14 33 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 23 39 19 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 27 39 17 36 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 23 39 22 40 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 25 40 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 27 42 23 41 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>012.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LAZ010>014-017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ149-152-153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...57
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