293
FXUS64 KSHV 191046
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
446 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED COLD WEATHER IS FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STUBBORN
LOW CLOUDS THAT HUNG ACROSS THE REGION ALL DAY SATURDAY HAVE
FINALLY STARTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR OF
ARKANSAS & LOUISIANA. BEHIND THE CLOUDS, TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN LOCATIONS UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS.EVENTUALLY TEMPS SHOULD FALL
TO FREEZING AND BELOW AREAWIDE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCLUDING
OUR CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA ZONES.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY, BUT TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO
LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH, ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH TODAY, WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COOLER OUTSIDE. WE SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY, BUT WITH LESS WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, SO ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, WITH A HARD FREEZE
WARNING POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20. /20/
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE FORECAST GETS VERY INTERESTING AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR THE TEXAS AND
MEXICO BORDER. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP, WHICH WILL FIRST MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. AS WE MOVE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL CRANK UP,
SENDING A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA. WITH A COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE, MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW,
ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT CENTRAL LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.
THE LOOMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE
PRECIP SHIELD MAKE IT AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL AREAS SEE. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW
MOVES 10 TO 20 MILES IN ANY DIRECTION, THINGS COULD SHIFT. AS FAR
AS AMOUNTS GO, THE MORE SOUTH YOU GO FROM I-20, THE HIGHER AMOUNT
OF SNOW YOU WILL SEE. AT THIS TIME, FORECAST STORM TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH AROUND I-20 TO UP TO 3 INCHES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. ONE THING TO REALLY
CONSIDER, WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING, SNOW RATIOS COULD BE OVER 10 TO 1, WHICH
COULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES/PARISHES GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE INCLUSION OF OUACHITA PARISH IN
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS
THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD, AS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.
THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT
IN THE 40S, WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY. ANY RESIDUAL
SNOWPACK COULD AID IN COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BUT, ANOTHER
COOL FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
/20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AROUND THE REGION AND WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KMLU AND KELD STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF RETURNING TO MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE
BEFORE ALSO CLEARING OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD, SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 40 21 39 24 / 0 0 0 30
MLU 41 20 37 23 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 35 14 33 19 / 0 0 0 20
TXK 38 18 37 22 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 38 17 36 19 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 38 22 39 24 / 0 0 0 40
GGG 39 20 39 22 / 0 0 0 40
LFK 42 23 41 24 / 0 0 0 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>012.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LAZ010>014-017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ149-152-153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...57
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page