535
FXUS64 KSHV 192332
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
532 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY NW WINDS
ACROSS THE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE THESE SAME WINDS THAT
WILL HELP DROP WIND CHILL VALUES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE MINT
VALUES FALL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS LAST NIGHT, BUT A 5-10 MPH BREEZE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
LOCALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, WITH
LOW 20'S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO THE NEED TO DEPART FROM THE BASE NBM VALUES, AND ELECT
FOR A COOLER PRESENTATION OVERNIGHT. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
VALUES ADVERTISED FOR THIS EVENING WEIGH ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE,
AS SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ELECTED FOR EVEN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. TO
TRULY EMPHASIZE HOW DRY OF AN AIRMASS WE ARE IN, CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS REPORT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WITH SOME NEAR ZERO. GIVEN THE NEED TO DECREASE LOWS OVERNIGHT, THE
FREEZE WARNING ISSUED IN THE MORNING UPDATE HAS NOW BEEN EXPANDED
SOUTH. MULTIPLE HOURS IN SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WILL DAMAGE UNPROTECTED VEGETATION AND PIPES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY AROUND A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. NORTHERLIES THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME EASTERLIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AGAIN BETWEEN 5-10 MPH
AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ON THE TOPIC OF WINTER
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC, PROBABILISTIC AND HI-RES
SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHERLY
SHIFT IN IMPACTS IS EVOLVING. 700-300MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY ANALYSIS
ADVERTISES A FAST MOVING DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN A
ROBUST CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH RACING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE
MONDAY, INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE INFLUENCE AND TIMING
OF THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOCK THE WEAK WAVE AXIS OFF
THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM ADVANCING NORTH, AND THEREFORE GETS
FORCED SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GOM. SOME HI-RES SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS MCCURTAIN EARLY TUES AM BUT
THIS IS BEFORE THE MOISTURE COLUMN PRESENTING THIS BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY GETS ELIMINATED BY A STRONGER AND DRIER LAYER.
GIVEN THE TURN OF EVENTS THIS AFTERNOON, LOCAL SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE
COME DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WHILE CHANGES ARE STILL POSSIBLE, THE AGREEMENT IN THE
NWP IS TELLING. FOR NOW, STILL CALLING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID, LATEST
FORECAST VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANGELINA COUNTY
EAST THROUGH LA SALLE PARISH FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1-3", WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT RULED OUT IF A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW
WAS TO MATERIALIZE. NORTH TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR, SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY CITING THE DRIER AIRMASS AND THE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE GULF LOW. COULD THE I-20 CORRIDOR SEE SOME
FLURRIES, YES, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW PROBABILITIES ARE FALLING
BUYING ANY MAJOR NWP CHANGES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WINTER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEPART THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
FROM THERE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY SETTLE IN, WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT, INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEG F. WHATEVER SNOW PACK DOES
EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL PLAY INFLUENCE ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST, SOUTHERLIES WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB TOWARDS 40 DEG F. THIS SHOULD, IN
THEORY, ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF WHAT DOES FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING WED PM/THU AM SO WHAT DOES MELT SHOULD REFREEZE OVERNIGHT,
BUT WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 DEG F FOR THURSDAY, THIS SHOULD FINISH OFF
WHAT IS LEFT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE
PACKAGE, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 DEG F POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
FOR THE 20/00Z TAFS, UNDER ABUNDANT HIGH PRESSURE, VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS, SKC LOOK
TO DOMINATE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
SPEEDS DECREASING TO ABOUT 5 KTS, BECOMING EASTERLY INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW AND PICKING UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS. GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT, PARTICULARLY FOR AIRSPACE SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.
SP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 19 38 21 35 / 0 0 30 30
MLU 17 37 22 35 / 0 0 30 40
DEQ 16 33 18 34 / 0 10 20 10
TXK 16 36 20 35 / 0 0 20 10
ELD 16 35 21 36 / 0 0 20 20
TYR 18 38 22 36 / 0 0 30 20
GGG 18 38 22 35 / 0 0 30 20
LFK 21 40 22 35 / 0 10 60 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-021.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LAZ010>014-017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR OKZ077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ149-152-153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...26
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