860
FXUS64 KSHV 201132
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
532 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOW AND MIDDLE TEENS NORTH OF I-30, TO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. A FREEZE WARNING AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER MOST OF THE REGION AS A RESULT
OF THESE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
TODAY, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE ONE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NORTH OF I-30, WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE.
THE FORECAST GETS VERY CHALLENGING AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO BORDER. THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE RED RIVER DISTURBANCE, BUT MODELS
HAVE THAT PRECIP DIMINISHING AS THE DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT VERY LIGHT FLURRIES NORTH OF I-20, BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE GIST OF IT. OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
LOW ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS GULF COAST. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LARGE SHIELD OF WINTRY PRECIP WITH
IT, AND MOVING THAT PRECIP INTO OUR ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS PRECIP. AT FIRST, MODELS HAD THIS PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-30 CORRIDOR, BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTRY PRECIP HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD.
THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE SO FAR SOUTH, THAT ONLY OUR ZONES SOUTH
OF THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WOULD SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WOULD BE LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO JENA LOUISIANA.
HOWEVER, EXPECTED STORM TOTALS HAVE DIMINISH, WITH A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED. OUR CRITERIA FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING IS 2 INCHES OR ABOVE, SO DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES/PARISHES BETWEEN LUFKIN TEXAS AND
JENA LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES ANGELINA, SAN AUGUSTINE, AND SABINE
COUNTIES IN TEXAS AND SABINE, SOUTHERN NATCHITOCHES, GRANT, AND LA
SALLE IN LOUISIANA. NORTH OF THE ADVISORY TO AROUND THE I-20
CORRIDOR, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES, BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. IN FULL DISCLOSURE, IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE THAT ALL WINTRY PRECIP REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREAS, ESPECIALLY SINCE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SOUTHWARD. BUT, THE MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CAN
BE VERY CHALLENGING AND ANY CHANGE OF DIRECTION 20 TO 30 MILES CAN
GREATLY HAVE AN EFFECT ON THIS FORECAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST TODAY FOR UPDATES. THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. /20/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
A COLD AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. EXPECT WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH MORE COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS POSSIBLE, AS MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN
THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE MID 50S BY
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
FOR THE 20/06Z TAFS, UNDER CONTINUED EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT,
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SKC WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, ASIDE FROM A FEW SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER
21/00Z, EXPECTING DROPS TO LOWER VFR CIGS AHEAD OF INCOMING
PRECIPITATION. IMPACTS MAY BEGIN FOR OUR WESTERNMOST TERMINALS
BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH
TO PREVAIL WX TYPES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AT SPEEDS DECREASING TO ABOUT 5 KTS, BECOMING EASTERLY INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW AND PICKING UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS. GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT, PARTICULARLY FOR SITES SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
SP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 38 24 36 19 / 0 20 20 0
MLU 36 23 35 15 / 0 20 30 0
DEQ 33 18 32 13 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 36 22 35 19 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 36 20 35 14 / 0 10 0 0
TYR 39 25 35 20 / 0 20 10 0
GGG 38 23 36 18 / 0 20 10 0
LFK 41 25 36 16 / 10 50 40 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-019-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR LAZ017-018-020-022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR TXZ165>167.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...26
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